SMU vs. Boston College: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SMUTeam statsBC
- Q4 6:38SMUDerrick McFall 48 Yd Run (Stone Eby Kick)45–13
- Q4 8:59BCJordan McDonald 5 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Luca Lombardo Kick)38–13
- Q4 13:25SMUDerrick McFall 6 Yd Run (Sam Keltner Kick)38–6
- Q3 4:46SMUMatthew Hibner 37 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Sam Keltner Kick)31–6
- Q3 10:02SMUYamir Knight 61 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Sam Keltner Kick)24–6
- Q2 0:04BCLuca Lombardo 36 Yd Field Goal 17–6
- Q2 1:11BCLuca Lombardo 31 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 3:01SMUJordan Hudson 25 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Sam Keltner Kick)17–0
- Q1 6:35SMUSam Keltner 20 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 8:56SMUDerrick McFall 1 Yd Run (Sam Keltner Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassKevin Jennings 16/32, 326 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushTJ Harden 16 CAR, 130 YDS
- RecYamir Knight 7 REC, 162 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDylan Lonergan 25/37, 232 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushTurbo Richard 15 CAR, 49 YDS
- RecLewis Bond 9 REC, 94 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSMU up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 8:56SMU +11%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 D.McFall rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BCE00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of SMU vs. Boston College?
SMU 45, Boston College 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SMU) was correct.
| SMU | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| 574 | Total yards | 390 |
| 352 | Passing yards | 284 |
| 222 | Rushing yards | 106 |
| 22 | First downs | 25 |
| 8-14 | 3rd down | 2-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 4-7 |
| 19/35 | Comp/Att | 29/45 |
| 10.1 | Yards per pass | 6.3 |
| 7.2 | Yards per rush | 2.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 13-155 | Penalties | 4-25 |
| 27:02 | Possession | 32:58 |
Costliest call
Q1 6:35 SMU field goal on 4th & 3 at BC 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:38SMUDerrick McFall 48 Yd Run (Stone Eby Kick)45–13
- Q4 8:59BCJordan McDonald 5 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Luca Lombardo Kick)38–13
- Q4 13:25SMUDerrick McFall 6 Yd Run (Sam Keltner Kick)38–6
- Q3 4:46SMUMatthew Hibner 37 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Sam Keltner Kick)31–6
- Q3 10:02SMUYamir Knight 61 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Sam Keltner Kick)24–6
- Q2 0:04BCLuca Lombardo 36 Yd Field Goal 17–6
- Q2 1:11BCLuca Lombardo 31 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 3:01SMUJordan Hudson 25 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Sam Keltner Kick)17–0
- Q1 6:35SMUSam Keltner 20 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 8:56SMUDerrick McFall 1 Yd Run (Sam Keltner Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BC Elo 1339, SMU Elo 1741 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BC +13.7 (19% to win) — 3.2 points clear of SMU's market line of +10.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| SMU | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| +14.6 (#27) | CORE overall | -10.0 (#95) |
| +9 / -5 | offense / defense | -1 / +9 |
| 2.63 | points / drive | 1.81 |
| 1.64 | allowed / drive | 3.19 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +10 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →