| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU | 10 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 45 |
| BC | 0 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (BC Elo 1339, SMU Elo 1741) plus home-field advantage. That projects BC +13.7 (16% to win) — 3.2 points of value on SMU versus the market line of +10.5.
SMU up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
SMU 45, Boston College 13.
Yes — the model's pick (SMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had SMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(10:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete deep middle to #8 Y.Knight caught at BCE32, for 61 yards to the BCE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:02, 1ST DOWN #95 S.Keltner kick attempt good (H: #43 W.McSparron, LS: #48 M.Tribbett)
(04:50) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short middle to #88 M.Hibner caught at BCE25, for 37 yards to the BCE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:46, 1ST DOWN #95 S.Keltner kick attempt good (H: #43 W.McSparron, LS: #48 M.Tribbett)
End of 2nd quarter.
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