San José State vs. Wyoming: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SJSUTeam statsWYO
- Q4 0:40WYOTerron Kellman 28 Yd Run (Erik Sandvik Kick)28–35
- Q4 2:44WYOCharlie Coenen 45 Yd pass from Kaden Anderson (Erik Sandvik Kick)28–28
- Q4 9:59WYOBrayden Johnson 65 Yd Interception Return (Erik Sandvik Kick)28–21
- Q2 10:19SJSUDanny Scudero 2 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Mathias Brown Kick)28–14
- Q2 10:39WYOMichael Fitzgerald 35 Yd pass from Kaden Anderson (Erik Sandvik Kick)21–14
- Q2 14:10SJSUDanny Scudero 7 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Mathias Brown Kick)21–7
- Q1 8:05SJSUDanny Scudero 72 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Mathias Brown Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:52WYODeion DeBlanc 73 Yd Punt Return (Erik Sandvik Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:39SJSUDanny Scudero 43 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Mathias Brown Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- WYO lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassWalker Eget 23/37, 295 YDS, 4 TD
- RushLamar Radcliffe 7 CAR, 29 YDS
- RecDanny Scudero 10 REC, 180 YDS, 4 TD
- PassKaden Anderson 23/39, 304 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushSamuel Harris 9 CAR, 47 YDS
- RecSamuel Harris 2 REC, 58 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSJSU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:44WYO +57%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Charlie Coenen for 45 yds for a TD (Erik Sandvik KICK)
- Q4 1:13WYO +46%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Samuel Harris for 52 yds to the SJSU 28 for a 1ST down
- Q4 1:13SJSU +42%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 60 yds for a touchback
- Q1 15:00SJSU +38%
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Danny Scudero
- Q4 0:40WYO +22%
Terron Kellman run for 28 yds for a TD (Erik Sandvik KICK)
- Q1 8:05SJSU +17%
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 72 yds for a TD (Mathias Brown KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of San José State vs. Wyoming?
San José State 28, Wyoming 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SJSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| SJSU | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| 383 | Total yards | 413 |
| 340 | Passing yards | 304 |
| 43 | Rushing yards | 109 |
| 21 | First downs | 21 |
| 6-19 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 31/56 | Comp/Att | 23/40 |
| 6.1 | Yards per pass | 7.6 |
| 1.5 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 10-80 | Penalties | 6-60 |
| 34:54 | Possession | 25:06 |
Costliest call
Q1 6:21 WYO punt on 4th & 1 at WYO 32. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.94 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:40WYOTerron Kellman 28 Yd Run (Erik Sandvik Kick)28–35
- Q4 2:44WYOCharlie Coenen 45 Yd pass from Kaden Anderson (Erik Sandvik Kick)28–28
- Q4 9:59WYOBrayden Johnson 65 Yd Interception Return (Erik Sandvik Kick)28–21
- Q2 10:19SJSUDanny Scudero 2 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Mathias Brown Kick)28–14
- Q2 10:39WYOMichael Fitzgerald 35 Yd pass from Kaden Anderson (Erik Sandvik Kick)21–14
- Q2 14:10SJSUDanny Scudero 7 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Mathias Brown Kick)21–7
- Q1 8:05SJSUDanny Scudero 72 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Mathias Brown Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:52WYODeion DeBlanc 73 Yd Punt Return (Erik Sandvik Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:39SJSUDanny Scudero 43 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Mathias Brown Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WYO Elo 1321, SJSU Elo 1433 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WYO +2.1 (46% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWyoming leads 8–7 · 40% have been one-possession games
| SJSU | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.3 (#78) | CORE overall | -15.3 (#111) |
| -1 / +3 | offense / defense | -18 / -3 |
| 1.65 | points / drive | 1.07 |
| 2.60 | allowed / drive | 1.65 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +13 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →