Sat, Oct 11, 11:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJSU | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 28 |
| WYO | 7 | 7 | 0 | 21 | 35 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (WYO Elo 1321, SJSU Elo 1433) plus home-field advantage. That projects WYO +2.1 (44% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = SJSU ahead, below = WYO ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Unlock with Pro →SJSU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
San José State 28, Wyoming 35.
No — the model picked SJSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated out-of-sample: +0.449 pts mean Closing Line Value and 56.4% beat the close (n=1,596, 2021-2025 opens, walk-forward). We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had SJSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Xavier Ward pass intercepted Brayden Johnson return for 65 yds for a TD (Erik Sandvik KICK)
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 72 yds for a TD (Mathias Brown KICK)
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Charlie Coenen for 45 yds for a TD (Erik Sandvik KICK)
