San José State vs. Utah State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SJSUTeam statsUSU
- Q4 1:58USUTanner Rinker 44 Yd Field Goal 25–30
- Q4 6:13USUTanner Rinker 45 Yd Field Goal 25–27
- Q4 11:56SJSULeland Smith 45 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)25–24
- Q3 1:10SJSUDenis Lynch 35 Yd Field Goal 19–24
- Q3 8:20USUBryson Barnes 2 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)16–24
- Q3 12:32SJSUSteve Chavez-Soto 66 Yd Run (Mathias Brown Kick)16–17
- Q3 13:55USUAnthony Garcia 74 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker Kick)9–17
- Q2 0:03USUTanner Rinker 31 Yd Field Goal 9–10
- Q2 1:07SJSULamar Radcliffe 15 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Mathias Brown PAT failed)9–7
- Q1 4:00USUBraden Pegan 2 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)3–7
- Q1 10:28SJSUDenis Lynch 37 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassWalker Eget 27/49, 340 YDS, 2 TD
- RushSteve Chavez-Soto 11 CAR, 102 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLeland Smith 4 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBryson Barnes 22/31, 326 YDS, 1 TD
- RushBryson Barnes 16 CAR, 54 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAnthony Garcia 3 REC, 121 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSU up 2 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,937 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 9:03SJSU +41%
Miles Davis run for 14 yds to the SJSU 27 for a 1ST down
- Q4 6:13USU +37%
Tanner Rinker 45 Yd Field Goal
- Q4 1:58USU +30%
Tanner Rinker 44 Yd Field Goal
- Q3 12:32SJSU +24%
Steve Chavez-Soto 66 Yd Run (Mathias Brown Kick)
- Q3 8:20USU +24%
Bryson Barnes 2 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)
- Q1 10:28SJSU +21%
Denis Lynch 37 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of San José State vs. Utah State?
San José State 25, Utah State 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USU) was correct.
| SJSU | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| 534 | Total yards | 461 |
| 340 | Passing yards | 331 |
| 194 | Rushing yards | 130 |
| 23 | First downs | 19 |
| 9-17 | 3rd down | 5-16 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 27/50 | Comp/Att | 23/32 |
| 6.8 | Yards per pass | 10.3 |
| 7.2 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-65 | Penalties | 6-65 |
| 30:13 | Possession | 29:47 |
Costliest call
Q1 10:28 SJSU field goal on 4th & 1 at USU 19. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.97 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:58USUTanner Rinker 44 Yd Field Goal 25–30
- Q4 6:13USUTanner Rinker 45 Yd Field Goal 25–27
- Q4 11:56SJSULeland Smith 45 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)25–24
- Q3 1:10SJSUDenis Lynch 35 Yd Field Goal 19–24
- Q3 8:20USUBryson Barnes 2 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)16–24
- Q3 12:32SJSUSteve Chavez-Soto 66 Yd Run (Mathias Brown Kick)16–17
- Q3 13:55USUAnthony Garcia 74 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker Kick)9–17
- Q2 0:03USUTanner Rinker 31 Yd Field Goal 9–10
- Q2 1:07SJSULamar Radcliffe 15 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Mathias Brown PAT failed)9–7
- Q1 4:00USUBraden Pegan 2 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)3–7
- Q1 10:28SJSUDenis Lynch 37 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USU Elo 1370, SJSU Elo 1417 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USU -0.5 (53% to win) — 2.5 points clear of SJSU's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesThe series is level at 21–21–1 · 37% have been one-possession games
| SJSU | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.3 (#78) | CORE overall | -4.1 (#77) |
| -1 / +3 | offense / defense | -1 / +3 |
| 1.65 | points / drive | 2.33 |
| 2.60 | allowed / drive | 2.43 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| +13 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →