San Diego State vs. Fresno State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SDSUTeam statsFRES
- Q4 8:46SDSUTano Letuli 31 Yd Interception Return (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)23–0
- Q4 13:22SDSUGabriel Plascencia 27 Yd Field Goal 16–0
- Q2 1:33SDSUGabriel Plascencia 50 Yd Field Goal 13–0
- Q2 12:20SDSUGabriel Plascencia 42 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 3:30SDSULucky Sutton 1 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJayden Denegal 11/18, 124 YDS, 1 INT
- RushLucky Sutton 21 CAR, 131 YDS, 1 TD
- RecByron Cardwell Jr. 2 REC, 59 YDS
- PassCarson Conklin 20/42, 182 YDS, 2 INT
- RushRayshon Luke 5 CAR, 23 YDS
- RecRayshon Luke 5 REC, 35 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSDSU up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 3:30SDSU +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Sutton rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FST00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 12:20SDSU +7%
#11 G.Plascencia field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD
- Q2 1:33SDSU +5%
#11 G.Plascencia field goal attempt from 50 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of San Diego State vs. Fresno State?
San Diego State 23, Fresno State 0.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SDSU) was correct.
| SDSU | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| 332 | Total yards | 227 |
| 124 | Passing yards | 182 |
| 208 | Rushing yards | 45 |
| 21 | First downs | 14 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 5-16 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-3 |
| 11/18 | Comp/Att | 20/42 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 4.3 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 2.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-49 | Penalties | 6-50 |
| 31:51 | Possession | 28:09 |
Costliest call
Q1 7:23 FRES punt on 4th & 7 at SDSU 35. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:46SDSUTano Letuli 31 Yd Interception Return (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)23–0
- Q4 13:22SDSUGabriel Plascencia 27 Yd Field Goal 16–0
- Q2 1:33SDSUGabriel Plascencia 50 Yd Field Goal 13–0
- Q2 12:20SDSUGabriel Plascencia 42 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 3:30SDSULucky Sutton 1 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FRES Elo 1405, SDSU Elo 1534 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FRES +2.8 (44% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSan Diego State leads 19–13 · San Diego State has won 2 straight · 34% have been one-possession games
| SDSU | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.6 (#35) | CORE overall | -3.4 (#73) |
| -2 / -14 | offense / defense | -7 / -4 |
| 1.88 | points / drive | 1.67 |
| 1.14 | allowed / drive | 1.49 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -11 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →