Valley Children's StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDSU | 7 | 6 | 0 | 10 | 23 |
| FRES | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
FRES 1405
SDSU 1534
Projected spread
FRES +2.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
SDSU
58% to win
Market spread
FRES +3
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
42%
FRES · market 41%
Our model blends Elo ratings (FRES Elo 1405, SDSU Elo 1534) plus home-field advantage. That projects FRES +2.8 (42% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
FRES (top)SDSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: FRES 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- FRES pass offense (0.25 PPA) vs. SDSU pass defense (-0.04 allowed) — edge FRES.
- SDSU rush offense (0.17 PPA) vs. FRES rush defense (0.09 allowed) — edge SDSU.
- SDSU pass offense (0.09 PPA) vs. FRES pass defense (0.15 allowed) — edge FRES.
Drive-by-drive
SDSU 4/11 scoring drives← own end zone →FRES 1/11 scoring drives
SDSUPUNT5 pl, 40 yds· own 35Q1
FRESPUNT11 pl, 40 yds· own 25Q1
SDSUTD9 pl, 92 yds· own 8Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
SDSU up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
91%
SDSU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of San Diego State vs. Fresno State?
San Diego State 23, Fresno State 0.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SDSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had SDSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.