Sat, Oct 25, 7:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDSU | 7 | 6 | 0 | 10 | 23 |
| FRES | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (FRES Elo 1405, SDSU Elo 1534) plus home-field advantage. That projects FRES +2.8 (42% to win), essentially in line with the market.
SDSU up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
San Diego State 23, Fresno State 0.
Yes — the model's pick (SDSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had SDSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Tano Letuli 31 Yd Interception Return (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)
(05:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Napier rush middle for 17 yards loss to the FST25 fumbled by #2 J.Napier at FST25 forced by #22 C.Bracha recovered by FST #6 J.Jacks at FST25 #6 J.Jacks return 22 yards to the FST47 (#5 B.Emanuel, Jr.; #2 J.Napier)
(06:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal pass intercepted by #3 A.Hamilton at FST03, End Of Play
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