Rutgers vs. Purdue: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
RUTGTeam statsPUR
- Q4 0:00RUTGJai Patel 30 Yd Field Goal 27–24
- Q4 1:06RUTGJai Patel 20 Yd Field Goal 24–24
- Q4 4:43PURNitro Tuggle 14 Yd pass from Ryan Browne (Spencer Porath Kick)21–24
- Q4 7:45RUTGAthan Kaliakmanis 1 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)21–17
- Q3 7:33RUTGKJ Duff 72 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)14–17
- Q3 13:10PURDevin Mockobee 3 Yd pass from Malachi Singleton (Spencer Porath Kick)7–17
- Q2 0:12RUTGAntwan Raymond 1 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)7–10
- Q1 0:08PURSpencer Porath 20 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 10:24PURMalachi Thomas 8 Yd pass from Malachi Singleton (Spencer Porath Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassAthan Kaliakmanis 19/27, 359 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAntwan Raymond 29 CAR, 116 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKJ Duff 6 REC, 241 YDS, 1 TD
- PassRyan Browne 11/20, 117 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDevin Mockobee 16 CAR, 91 YDS
- RecMalachi Thomas 3 REC, 50 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPUR up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 4:43PUR +67%
No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short left to #0 N.Tuggle caught at RUT00, for 14 yards to the RUT00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 7:45RUTG +52%
#16 A.Kaliakmanis rush middle for 1 yard gain to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 1:06RUTG +43%
#44 J.Patel field goal attempt from 20 yards GOOD
- Q3 7:33RUTG +29%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Kaliakmanis pass complete deep left to #8 K.Duff caught at PUR33, for 72 yards to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 7:23RUTG +24%
#94 J.Anderson punt 35 yards to the PUR45 PENALTY RUT Kick Catch Interference (#7 C.Miller) 15 yards from PUR45 to RUT40
- Q3 13:10PUR +23%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Singleton pass complete short left to #45 D.Mockobee caught at RUT00, for 3 yards to the RUT00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Rutgers vs. Purdue?
Rutgers 27, Purdue 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (RUTG) was correct.
| RUTG | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 543 | Total yards | 345 |
| 359 | Passing yards | 128 |
| 184 | Rushing yards | 217 |
| 22 | First downs | 14 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 1-9 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 19/27 | Comp/Att | 13/23 |
| 13.3 | Yards per pass | 5.6 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 7.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-46 | Penalties | 0-0 |
| 36:58 | Possession | 23:02 |
Costliest call
Q4 1:06 RUTG field goal on 4th & 2 at PUR 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:00RUTGJai Patel 30 Yd Field Goal 27–24
- Q4 1:06RUTGJai Patel 20 Yd Field Goal 24–24
- Q4 4:43PURNitro Tuggle 14 Yd pass from Ryan Browne (Spencer Porath Kick)21–24
- Q4 7:45RUTGAthan Kaliakmanis 1 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)21–17
- Q3 7:33RUTGKJ Duff 72 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)14–17
- Q3 13:10PURDevin Mockobee 3 Yd pass from Malachi Singleton (Spencer Porath Kick)7–17
- Q2 0:12RUTGAntwan Raymond 1 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)7–10
- Q1 0:08PURSpencer Porath 20 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 10:24PURMalachi Thomas 8 Yd pass from Malachi Singleton (Spencer Porath Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PUR Elo 1290, RUTG Elo 1468 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PUR +4.7 (39% to win) — 7.2 points clear of RUTG's market line of -2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| RUTG | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.9 (#79) | CORE overall | -9.5 (#93) |
| +10 / +14 | offense / defense | -4 / +5 |
| 2.60 | points / drive | 1.57 |
| 3.60 | allowed / drive | 3.07 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →