Rutgers vs. Minnesota: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
RUTGTeam statsMINN
- Q4 3:19MINNJavon Tracy 4 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)28–31
- Q4 11:28RUTGAntwan Raymond 4 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)28–24
- Q3 0:11MINNBrady Denaburg 26 Yd Field Goal 21–24
- Q3 9:18MINNJalen Smith 9 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)21–21
- Q2 0:18RUTGAntwan Raymond 2 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)21–14
- Q2 7:58MINNLe'Meke Brockington 8 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)14–14
- Q2 8:52MINNFame Ijeboi 2 Yd Run (Brady Denaburg Kick)14–7
- Q2 10:43RUTGKJ Duff 14 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)14–0
- Q1 3:16RUTGDT Sheffield 4 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- RUTG played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MINN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.5 vs 3rd & 4.8
- PassAthan Kaliakmanis 21/34, 249 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushAntwan Raymond 26 CAR, 161 YDS, 2 TD
- RecKJ Duff 6 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDrake Lindsey 31/41, 324 YDS, 3 TD
- RushFame Ijeboi 12 CAR, 37 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJalen Smith 4 REC, 103 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMINN up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 11:28RUTG +37%
Antwan Raymond 4 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)
- Q4 3:19MINN +33%
Javon Tracy 4 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)
- Q3 9:18MINN +26%
Jalen Smith 9 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)
- Q2 7:58MINN +25%
Le'Meke Brockington 8 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)
- Q2 0:18RUTG +23%
Antwan Raymond 2 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)
- Q3 0:11MINN +23%
Brady Denaburg 26 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of Rutgers vs. Minnesota?
Rutgers 28, Minnesota 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MINN) was correct.
| RUTG | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| 387 | Total yards | 359 |
| 249 | Passing yards | 324 |
| 138 | Rushing yards | 35 |
| 29 | First downs | 20 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 5-11 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 21/34 | Comp/Att | 31/41 |
| 7.3 | Yards per pass | 7.9 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 1.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-41 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 31:05 | Possession | 28:55 |
Costliest call
Q1 7:35 MINN punt on 4th & 1 at MINN 21. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.90 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:19MINNJavon Tracy 4 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)28–31
- Q4 11:28RUTGAntwan Raymond 4 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)28–24
- Q3 0:11MINNBrady Denaburg 26 Yd Field Goal 21–24
- Q3 9:18MINNJalen Smith 9 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)21–21
- Q2 0:18RUTGAntwan Raymond 2 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)21–14
- Q2 7:58MINNLe'Meke Brockington 8 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)14–14
- Q2 8:52MINNFame Ijeboi 2 Yd Run (Brady Denaburg Kick)14–7
- Q2 10:43RUTGKJ Duff 14 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)14–0
- Q1 3:16RUTGDT Sheffield 4 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MINN Elo 1593, RUTG Elo 1583 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MINN -2.8 (59% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| RUTG | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.9 (#79) | CORE overall | -10.1 (#96) |
| +10 / +14 | offense / defense | -7 / +3 |
| 2.60 | points / drive | 1.72 |
| 3.60 | allowed / drive | 2.38 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →