| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RUTG | 7 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 28 |
| MINN | 0 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 31 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MINN Elo 1593, RUTG Elo 1583) plus home-field advantage. That projects MINN -2.8 (58% to win), essentially in line with the market.
MINN up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Rutgers 28, Minnesota 31.
Yes — the model's pick (MINN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MINN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jalen Smith for 78 yds to the RUTG 3 for a 1ST down
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Colin Weber for 3 yds Athan Kaliakmanis fumbled, recovered by RUTG
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Rushawn Lawrence for a loss of 15 yards to the MINN 41
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