| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RICE | 0 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| TXST | 0 | 10 | 17 | 14 | 41 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TXST Elo 1572, RICE Elo 1078) on a neutral field. That projects TXST -19.8 (93% to win), essentially in line with the market.
TXST up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Rice 10, Texas State 41.
Yes — the model's pick (TXST) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TXST pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(14:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short left to #11 B.Sparks caught at TXST35, for 69 yards to the RICE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:07, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Robles kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Nunez, LS: #48 A.Turner)
(14:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush middle for 63 yards gain to the RICE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:41, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Robles kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Nunez, LS: #48 A.Turner)
(06:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 Q.Jackson rush middle for 35 yards gain to the TXST10 (#21 C.Grogan), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TXST UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#21 C.Grogan) 5 yards from TXST10 to TXST05, 1ST DOWN
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