Rice vs. Texas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
RICETeam statsTXST
- Q4 5:32RICEEnock Gota 28 Yd Field Goal 10–41
- Q4 9:10TXSTChris Dawn Jr. 14 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)7–41
- Q4 14:41TXSTLincoln Pare 63 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)7–34
- Q3 6:53TXSTTyler Robles 29 Yd Field Goal 7–27
- Q3 8:36TXSTChris Dawn Jr. 12 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)7–24
- Q3 14:07TXSTBeau Sparks 69 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)7–17
- Q2 0:09RICEAaron Turner 2 Yd pass from Patrick Crayton Jr. (Enock Gota Kick)7–10
- Q2 6:17TXSTTyler Robles 30 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q2 10:31TXSTBrad Jackson 6 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassPatrick Crayton Jr. 4/9, 70 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushQuinton Jackson 16 CAR, 78 YDS
- RecPayton Matthews 1 REC, 54 YDS
- PassBrad Jackson 17/24, 174 YDS, 3 TD
- RushLincoln Pare 11 CAR, 106 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBeau Sparks 4 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Rice vs. Texas State?
Rice 10, Texas State 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TXST) was correct.
| RICE | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 196 | Total yards | 437 |
| 94 | Passing yards | 196 |
| 102 | Rushing yards | 241 |
| 12 | First downs | 24 |
| 3-17 | 3rd down | 2-11 |
| 3-5 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 13/21 | Comp/Att | 18/26 |
| 4.5 | Yards per pass | 7.5 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 5.9 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-57 | Penalties | 9-87 |
| 30:32 | Possession | 29:28 |
- Q4 5:32RICEEnock Gota 28 Yd Field Goal 10–41
- Q4 9:10TXSTChris Dawn Jr. 14 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)7–41
- Q4 14:41TXSTLincoln Pare 63 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)7–34
- Q3 6:53TXSTTyler Robles 29 Yd Field Goal 7–27
- Q3 8:36TXSTChris Dawn Jr. 12 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)7–24
- Q3 14:07TXSTBeau Sparks 69 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)7–17
- Q2 0:09RICEAaron Turner 2 Yd pass from Patrick Crayton Jr. (Enock Gota Kick)7–10
- Q2 6:17TXSTTyler Robles 30 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q2 10:31TXSTBrad Jackson 6 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TXST Elo 1572, RICE Elo 1078 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects TXST -19.8 (90% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| RICE | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| -26.8 (#132) | CORE overall | +9.4 (#41) |
| -20 / +7 | offense / defense | +12 / +3 |
| 1.40 | points / drive | 3.21 |
| 3.09 | allowed / drive | 2.73 |
| 38% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -24 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →