Rhode Island vs. Western Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats

Rhode Island

Western Michigan1-3
▸Final
Waldo Stadium
RHODTeam statsWMU
251Total yards372
256Pass156
-5Rush216
16First downs25
2-73rd down8-16
4Turnovers2
20:35Possession39:25
- Q4 2:36WMUHunter Smith 21 Yd Field Goal 14–47
- Q4 14:54RHODAntwain Littleton Jr. 5 Yd pass from Devin Farrell (Garth White Kick)14–44
- Q3 2:54WMUPalmer Domschke 49 Yd Field Goal 7–44
- Q3 6:12WMUPalmer Domschke 41 Yd Field Goal 7–41
- Q3 13:35WMUOfa Mataele 3 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)7–38
- Q2 0:20WMUDevin Miles 1 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)7–31
- Q2 4:54WMUOfa Mataele 22 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)7–24
- Q2 7:59WMUAveion Chenault 10 Yd pass from Broc Lowry (Palmer Domschke Kick)7–17
- Q2 13:35WMUBroc Lowry 4 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)7–10
- Q1 6:48WMUPalmer Domschke 29 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 13:49RHODAntwain Littleton Jr. 2 Yd Run (Garth White Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Market line
WMU −7.5
Against the number
WMU covered
line WMU −7.5
Kickoff144 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
WMU (top)RHOD (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WMU 100%
Closing line
WMU −7.5
Closing total
45.0
Model line
—
Actual result
RHOD 14 – 47 WMU
Rhode Island
- PassDevin Farrell 16/24, 229 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushAntwain Littleton Jr. 12 CAR, 35 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMarquis Buchanan 7 REC, 141 YDS
Western Michigan
- PassBroc Lowry 15/20, 143 YDS, 1 TD
- RushLolo Mataele 10 CAR, 60 YDS, 2 TD
- RecBaylin Brooks 2 REC, 32 YDS
26.6sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
131
Points / snap
0.47
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWMU up 37 entering the 4th quarter. Across 313 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
WMU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Rhode Island vs. Western Michigan?
Rhode Island 14, Western Michigan 47.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WMU) was correct.
RHOD
WMU
45%
Success rate
49%
0.07
EPA / pass
0.16
0.12
EPA / rush
0.26
49%
Early-down success
48%
49%
Pass success
44%
38%
Rush success
51%
17%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
12%
13%
Stuffed rush rate
17%
70%
Pass rate
32%
6.9
Avg 3rd-down distance
5.4
RHOD
6.9 yards to go on 3rd down
53 scrimmage snaps
WMU
5.4 yards to go on 3rd down
78 scrimmage snaps
| RHOD | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 251 | Total yards | 372 |
| 256 | Passing yards | 156 |
| -5 | Rushing yards | 216 |
| 16 | First downs | 25 |
| 2-7 | 3rd down | 8-16 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 19/28 | Comp/Att | 17/24 |
| 9.1 | Yards per pass | 6.5 |
| -0.2 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-25 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 20:35 | Possession | 39:25 |
RHOD
4/5 with the model
−1.2 pts · −0.0% win prob
WMU
6/7 with the model
−0.4 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q4 11:45 RHOD go for it on 4th & 16 at WMU 23. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.23 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishRHOD 2/13 scoring drives← own end zone →WMU 9/12 scoring drives
RHODTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
WMUFG15 pl, 68 yds· own 21Q1
RHODPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q1
WMUTD13 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q1
RHODPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 21Q2
WMUTD7 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q2
RHODFUM3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q2
WMUTD3 pl, 29 yds· opp 29Q2
RHODINT7 pl, 62 yds· own 25Q2
WMUTD8 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q2
RHODEND3 pl, 40 yds· own 25Q2
WMUPUNT4 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q3
RHODFUM1 pl, -6 yds· own 20Q3
WMUTD1 pl, 3 yds· opp 3Q3
RHODPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q3
WMUFG9 pl, 47 yds· own 30Q3
RHODPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q3
WMUFG4 pl, 7 yds· opp 38Q3
RHODTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
WMUFUM2 pl, -8 yds· own 25Q4
RHODDOWNS4 pl, -17 yds· opp 17Q4
WMUINT10 pl, 38 yds· own 34Q4
RHODFUM3 pl, 2 yds· own 15Q4
WMUFG5 pl, 14 yds· opp 17Q4
RHODEND8 pl, 45 yds· own 25Q4
- Q4 2:36WMUHunter Smith 21 Yd Field Goal 14–47
- Q4 14:54RHODAntwain Littleton Jr. 5 Yd pass from Devin Farrell (Garth White Kick)14–44
- Q3 2:54WMUPalmer Domschke 49 Yd Field Goal 7–44
- Q3 6:12WMUPalmer Domschke 41 Yd Field Goal 7–41
- Q3 13:35WMUOfa Mataele 3 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)7–38
- Q2 0:20WMUDevin Miles 1 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)7–31
- Q2 4:54WMUOfa Mataele 22 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)7–24
- Q2 7:59WMUAveion Chenault 10 Yd pass from Broc Lowry (Palmer Domschke Kick)7–17
- Q2 13:35WMUBroc Lowry 4 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)7–10
- Q1 6:48WMUPalmer Domschke 29 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 13:49RHODAntwain Littleton Jr. 2 Yd Run (Garth White Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →








