Waldo StadiumClosing line: WMU -7.5 · WMU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RHOD | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| WMU | 3 | 28 | 13 | 3 | 47 |
Team stats
RHODthis game · better side highlightedWMU
251
Total yards
372256
Passing yards
156-5
Rushing yards
21616
First downs
252-7 · 29%
Third down
8-16 · 50%Gridpex Model Prediction
One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
WMU (top)RHOD (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WMU 100%
Drive-by-drive
RHOD 2/13 scoring drives← own end zone →WMU 9/12 scoring drives
RHODTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
WMUFG15 pl, 68 yds· own 21Q1
RHODPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WMU up 37 entering the 4th quarter. Across 313 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
WMU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Rhode Island vs. Western Michigan?
Rhode Island 14, Western Michigan 47.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked RHOD, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had RHOD pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.