Pittsburgh vs. Florida State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
PITTTeam statsFSU
- Q4 1:45FSUMicahi Danzy 58 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Jake Weinberg Kick)34–31
- Q4 2:28PITTJa'Kyrian Turner 3 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski Kick)34–24
- Q4 7:15PITTTrey Butkowski 34 Yd Field Goal 27–24
- Q4 11:38PITTTrey Butkowski 28 Yd Field Goal 24–24
- Q3 5:41FSUJake Weinberg 34 Yd Field Goal 21–24
- Q3 10:15PITTDesmond Reid 16 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Trey Butkowski Kick)21–21
- Q2 0:06FSULanden Thomas 25 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Jake Weinberg Kick)14–21
- Q2 4:20FSUMicahi Danzy 33 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Jake Weinberg Kick)14–14
- Q2 14:21PITTDesmond Reid 24 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Trey Butkowski Kick)14–7
- Q1 3:17FSUCaziah Holmes 1 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:55PITTJa'Kyrian Turner 10 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassMason Heintschel 21/29, 321 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushMason Heintschel 16 CAR, 64 YDS
- RecDesmond Reid 8 REC, 155 YDS, 2 TD
- PassThomas Castellanos 16/23, 245 YDS, 3 TD
- RushGavin Sawchuk 14 CAR, 71 YDS
- RecMicahi Danzy 7 REC, 133 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFSU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 7:15PITT +36%
Trey Butkowski 34 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 0:56PITT +30%
PENALTY FSU Offside (Jackson Jr.,Darrell) 5 yards from FSU37 to FSU32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
- Q4 1:45FSU +30%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 58 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)
- Q4 11:38PITT +28%
Trey Butkowski 28 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 10:15PITT +26%
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Desmond Reid for 16 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)
- Q2 0:06FSU +23%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Landen Thomas for 25 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Pittsburgh vs. Florida State?
Pittsburgh 34, Florida State 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| PITT | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 476 | Total yards | 415 |
| 321 | Passing yards | 245 |
| 155 | Rushing yards | 170 |
| 23 | First downs | 21 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 6-12 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 21/29 | Comp/Att | 16/23 |
| 11.1 | Yards per pass | 10.7 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-55 | Penalties | 8-72 |
| 32:35 | Possession | 27:25 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:45FSUMicahi Danzy 58 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Jake Weinberg Kick)34–31
- Q4 2:28PITTJa'Kyrian Turner 3 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski Kick)34–24
- Q4 7:15PITTTrey Butkowski 34 Yd Field Goal 27–24
- Q4 11:38PITTTrey Butkowski 28 Yd Field Goal 24–24
- Q3 5:41FSUJake Weinberg 34 Yd Field Goal 21–24
- Q3 10:15PITTDesmond Reid 16 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Trey Butkowski Kick)21–21
- Q2 0:06FSULanden Thomas 25 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Jake Weinberg Kick)14–21
- Q2 4:20FSUMicahi Danzy 33 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Jake Weinberg Kick)14–14
- Q2 14:21PITTDesmond Reid 24 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Trey Butkowski Kick)14–7
- Q1 3:17FSUCaziah Holmes 1 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:55PITTJa'Kyrian Turner 10 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FSU Elo 1573, PITT Elo 1624 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FSU -0.4 (52% to win) — 10.6 points clear of PITT's market line of -11. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#80 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #34 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #53 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →Pittsburgh leads 7–5 · 33% have been one-possession games
| PITT | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +16.8 (#23) | CORE overall | +14.3 (#29) |
| +4 / -13 | offense / defense | +13 / -1 |
| 2.32 | points / drive | 2.75 |
| 1.96 | allowed / drive | 2.42 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +9 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →