Sat, Oct 11, 4:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PITT | 7 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 34 |
| FSU | 7 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 31 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (FSU Elo 1573, PITT Elo 1624) plus home-field advantage. That projects FSU -0.4 (51% to win) — 10.6 points of value on PITT versus the market line of -11.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = PITT ahead, below = FSU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
FSU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Pittsburgh 34, Florida State 31.
No — the model picked FSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had FSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 58 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Desmond Reid for 50 yds to the FSU 31 for a 1ST down
Mason Heintschel pass intercepted Edwin Joseph return for 12 yds to the FSU 12
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