Ole Miss vs. Georgia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MISSTeam statsUGA
- Q4 0:01MISSTeam Safety39–34
- Q4 0:06MISSLucas Carneiro 47 Yd Field Goal 37–34
- Q4 0:56UGAPeyton Woodring 24 Yd Field Goal 34–34
- Q4 7:03UGAZachariah Branch 18 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)34–31
- Q4 9:02MISSHarrison Wallace III 13 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)34–24
- Q4 11:29MISSKewan Lacy 5 Yd Run (Trinidad Chambliss Pass to Harrison Wallace III for Two-Point Conversion)27–24
- Q3 0:30UGAPeyton Woodring 37 Yd Field Goal 19–24
- Q3 4:51MISSKewan Lacy 7 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)19–21
- Q2 2:34UGADaylen Everette 47 Yd Fumble Return (Peyton Woodring Kick)12–21
- Q2 4:05UGAGunner Stockton 1 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)12–14
- Q2 10:33MISSLuke Hasz 3 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)12–7
- Q2 13:37UGAGunner Stockton 12 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)6–7
- Q1 2:13MISSLucas Carneiro 56 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 5:47MISSLucas Carneiro 55 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = MISS ahead, below = UGA ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassTrinidad Chambliss 30/46, 362 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKewan Lacy 22 CAR, 98 YDS, 2 TD
- RecHarrison Wallace III 9 REC, 156 YDS, 1 TD
- PassGunner Stockton 18/31, 203 YDS, 1 TD
- RushNate Frazier 15 CAR, 86 YDS
- RecZachariah Branch 8 REC, 67 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Ole Miss vs. Georgia?
Ole Miss 39, Georgia 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UGA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MISS | UGA | |
|---|---|---|
| 473 | Total yards | 343 |
| 362 | Passing yards | 219 |
| 111 | Rushing yards | 124 |
| 23 | First downs | 23 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 3-13 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 30/46 | Comp/Att | 19/33 |
| 7.9 | Yards per pass | 6.6 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-48 | Penalties | 4-38 |
| 27:28 | Possession | 32:32 |
- Q4 0:01MISSTeam Safety39–34
- Q4 0:06MISSLucas Carneiro 47 Yd Field Goal 37–34
- Q4 0:56UGAPeyton Woodring 24 Yd Field Goal 34–34
- Q4 7:03UGAZachariah Branch 18 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)34–31
- Q4 9:02MISSHarrison Wallace III 13 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)34–24
- Q4 11:29MISSKewan Lacy 5 Yd Run (Trinidad Chambliss Pass to Harrison Wallace III for Two-Point Conversion)27–24
- Q3 0:30UGAPeyton Woodring 37 Yd Field Goal 19–24
- Q3 4:51MISSKewan Lacy 7 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)19–21
- Q2 2:34UGADaylen Everette 47 Yd Fumble Return (Peyton Woodring Kick)12–21
- Q2 4:05UGAGunner Stockton 1 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)12–14
- Q2 10:33MISSLuke Hasz 3 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)12–7
- Q2 13:37UGAGunner Stockton 12 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)6–7
- Q1 2:13MISSLucas Carneiro 56 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 5:47MISSLucas Carneiro 55 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UGA Elo 2064, MISS Elo 2004 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects UGA -2.4 (58% to win) — 3.6 points clear of MISS's market line of -6. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#97 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #71 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #18 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →Georgia leads 34–15–1 · 40% have been one-possession games
| MISS | UGA | |
|---|---|---|
| +19.4 (#16) | CORE overall | +20.0 (#15) |
| +16 / -4 | offense / defense | +9 / -11 |
| 3.33 | points / drive | 3.08 |
| 2.07 | allowed / drive | 1.83 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →