| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MISS | 6 | 6 | 7 | 20 | 39 |
| UGA | 0 | 21 | 3 | 10 | 34 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UGA Elo 2064, MISS Elo 2004) on a neutral field. That projects UGA -2.4 (57% to win) — 3.6 points of value on MISS versus the market line of -6.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = MISS ahead, below = UGA ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
UGA up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Ole Miss 39, Georgia 34.
No — the model picked UGA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had UGA pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 40 yds to the UGA 30 for a 1ST down
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 16 yds to the MISS 36 for a 1ST down
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 36 yds to the UGA 8 for a 1ST down
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