Old Dominion vs. Georgia Southern: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ODUTeam statsGASO
- Q4 0:29GASODylan Gary 11 Yd pass from Turner Helton (Tripp Bryant Kick)45–10
- Q3 2:02ODUColton Joseph 20 Yd Run (Nathanial Eichner Kick)45–3
- Q3 6:53GASOTripp Bryant 26 Yd Field Goal 38–3
- Q3 9:56ODUKe'Travion Hargrove 12 Yd Run (Nathanial Eichner Kick)38–0
- Q2 3:53ODUKe'Travion Hargrove 2 Yd Run (Nathanial Eichner Kick)31–0
- Q2 9:57ODUJailen Butler 16 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Nathanial Eichner Kick)24–0
- Q2 14:57ODUNathanial Eichner 28 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q1 7:15ODUDevin Roche 21 Yd Run (Nathanial Eichner Kick)14–0
- Q1 13:10ODUKe'Travion Hargrove 1 Yd Run (Nathanial Eichner Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassColton Joseph 12/18, 140 YDS, 1 TD
- RushColton Joseph 20 CAR, 189 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJa'Cory Thomas 2 REC, 51 YDS
- PassJC French IV 16/24, 147 YDS, 1 INT
- RushTaeo Todd 7 CAR, 25 YDS
- RecMarcus Sanders Jr. 4 REC, 88 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsODU up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 170 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:10ODU +14%
No Huddle-Shotgun #18 K.Hargrove rush middle for 1 yard gain to the GASO00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 7:15ODU +10%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Roche rush middle for 21 yards gain to the GASO00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Old Dominion vs. Georgia Southern?
Old Dominion 45, Georgia Southern 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ODU) was correct.
| ODU | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| 551 | Total yards | 249 |
| 175 | Passing yards | 200 |
| 376 | Rushing yards | 49 |
| 32 | First downs | 13 |
| 7-12 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 14/23 | Comp/Att | 27/42 |
| 7.6 | Yards per pass | 4.8 |
| 6.6 | Yards per rush | 2.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-41 | Penalties | 5-35 |
| 34:35 | Possession | 25:25 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:55 ODU punt on 4th & 3 at ODU 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:29GASODylan Gary 11 Yd pass from Turner Helton (Tripp Bryant Kick)45–10
- Q3 2:02ODUColton Joseph 20 Yd Run (Nathanial Eichner Kick)45–3
- Q3 6:53GASOTripp Bryant 26 Yd Field Goal 38–3
- Q3 9:56ODUKe'Travion Hargrove 12 Yd Run (Nathanial Eichner Kick)38–0
- Q2 3:53ODUKe'Travion Hargrove 2 Yd Run (Nathanial Eichner Kick)31–0
- Q2 9:57ODUJailen Butler 16 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Nathanial Eichner Kick)24–0
- Q2 14:57ODUNathanial Eichner 28 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q1 7:15ODUDevin Roche 21 Yd Run (Nathanial Eichner Kick)14–0
- Q1 13:10ODUKe'Travion Hargrove 1 Yd Run (Nathanial Eichner Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GASO Elo 1319, ODU Elo 1566 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GASO +7.5 (32% to win) — 2.5 points clear of GASO's market line of +10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ODU | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.9 (#17) | CORE overall | -14.7 (#105) |
| +5 / -14 | offense / defense | +2 / +17 |
| 2.46 | points / drive | 2.55 |
| 1.52 | allowed / drive | 3.06 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →