Allen E. Paulson StadiumConference gameClosing line: ODU +-10 · ODU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODU | 14 | 17 | 14 | 0 | 45 |
| GASO | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
Team stats
ODUthis game · better side highlightedGASO
551
Total yards
249175
Passing yards
200376
Rushing yards
4932
First downs
137-12 · 58%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
GASO 1319
ODU 1566
Projected spread
GASO +7.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
ODU
71% to win
Market spread
GASO +10
sportsbook line
Model edge
GASO
2.5 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
29%
GASO · market 23%
Our model blends Elo ratings (GASO Elo 1319, ODU Elo 1566) plus home-field advantage. That projects GASO +7.5 (29% to win) — 2.5 points of value on GASO versus the market line of +10.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
GASO (top)ODU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: GASO 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- GASO pass offense (0.29 PPA) vs. ODU pass defense (0.09 allowed) — edge GASO.
- GASO rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. ODU rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge GASO.
- ODU rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. GASO rush defense (0.27 allowed) — edge GASO.
Drive-by-drive
ODU 7/12 scoring drives← own end zone →GASO 2/12 scoring drives
GASOINT2 pl, 7 yds· own 22Q1
ODUTD3 pl, 27 yds· opp 27Q1
GASOPUNT5 pl, 21 yds· own 17Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ODU up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 170 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
ODU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Old Dominion vs. Georgia Southern?
Old Dominion 45, Georgia Southern 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ODU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had ODU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.