Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OKSTTeam statsTTU
- Q3 3:17TTUM. Griffis run for 1 yd, for a TD (S. Harrington KICK)0–42
- Q3 9:25TTUM. Griffis pass to C. Douglas for 42 yds, for a TD (S. Harrington KICK)0–35
- Q2 5:30TTUS. Vailahi run for 0 yards, S. Vailahi fumbled, forced by J. Rodriguez, recovered by J. Rodriguez, return for 69 yds for a TD (U. Bellenfant KICK)0–28
- Q1 1:30TTUC. Dickey run for 7 yds, for a TD C. Dickey Run For Two-point Conversion0–21
- Q1 12:56TTUJ'Koby Williams 26 Yd pass from Will Hammond (Upton Bellenfant PAT failed)0–13
- Q1 14:46TTUJ'Koby Williams 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Upton Bellenfant Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TTU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 38% success rate
- PassSam Jackson V 9/19, 48 YDS
- RushTrent Howland 13 CAR, 58 YDS
- RecGavin Freeman 6 REC, 47 YDS
- PassMitch Griffis 9/13, 172 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCameron Dickey 13 CAR, 47 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCaleb Douglas 5 REC, 98 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTTU up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 170 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech?
Oklahoma State 0, Texas Tech 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TTU) was correct.
| OKST | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| 182 | Total yards | 370 |
| 87 | Passing yards | 282 |
| 95 | Rushing yards | 88 |
| 9 | First downs | 21 |
| 5-17 | 3rd down | 9-16 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 14/31 | Comp/Att | 19/29 |
| 2.8 | Yards per pass | 9.7 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 2.2 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-48 | Penalties | 1-9 |
| 28:44 | Possession | 31:16 |
Costliest call
Q1 13:07 OKST punt on 4th & 1 at OKST 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 3:17TTUM. Griffis run for 1 yd, for a TD (S. Harrington KICK)0–42
- Q3 9:25TTUM. Griffis pass to C. Douglas for 42 yds, for a TD (S. Harrington KICK)0–35
- Q2 5:30TTUS. Vailahi run for 0 yards, S. Vailahi fumbled, forced by J. Rodriguez, recovered by J. Rodriguez, return for 69 yds for a TD (U. Bellenfant KICK)0–28
- Q1 1:30TTUC. Dickey run for 7 yds, for a TD C. Dickey Run For Two-point Conversion0–21
- Q1 12:56TTUJ'Koby Williams 26 Yd pass from Will Hammond (Upton Bellenfant PAT failed)0–13
- Q1 14:46TTUJ'Koby Williams 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Upton Bellenfant Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TTU Elo 1826, OKST Elo 1071 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TTU -32.6 (97% to win) — 4.4 points clear of OKST's market line of -37. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTexas Tech leads 25–24–3 · Texas Tech has won 2 straight · 46% have been one-possession games
| OKST | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| -22.9 (#130) | CORE overall | +33.7 (#5) |
| -12 / +11 | offense / defense | +4 / -30 |
| 1.02 | points / drive | 2.82 |
| 2.92 | allowed / drive | 0.95 |
| 38% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →