Sat, Oct 25, 8:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKST | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TTU | 21 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 42 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TTU Elo 1826, OKST Elo 1071) plus home-field advantage. That projects TTU -32.6 (99% to win) — 4.4 points of value on OKST versus the market line of -37.
TTU up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 170 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Oklahoma State 0, Texas Tech 42.
Yes — the model's pick (TTU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TTU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
S. Vailahi run for 0 yards, S. Vailahi fumbled, forced by J. Rodriguez, recovered by J. Rodriguez, return for 69 yds for a TD (U. Bellenfant KICK)
End of 1st quarter.
(09:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 M.Griffis pass complete deep left to #5 C.Douglas caught at OSU12, for 42 yards to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:25, 1ST DOWN #48 S.Harrington kick attempt good (H: #41 J.Burgess, LS: #89 J.Llewellyn)
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