Jones AT&T StadiumConference gameClosing line: TTU -37 · TTU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKST | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TTU | 21 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 42 |
Team stats
OKSTthis game · better side highlightedTTU
182
Total yards
37087
Passing yards
28295
Rushing yards
889
First downs
215-17 · 29%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TTU 1826
OKST 1071
Projected spread
TTU -32.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
TTU
99% to win
Market spread
TTU -37
sportsbook line
Model edge
OKST
4.4 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
99%
TTU (no market)
Our model blends Elo ratings (TTU Elo 1826, OKST Elo 1071) plus home-field advantage. That projects TTU -32.6 (99% to win) — 4.4 points of value on OKST versus the market line of -37.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
TTU (top)OKST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TTU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- OKST rush offense (-0.04 PPA) vs. TTU rush defense (-0.16 allowed) — edge OKST.
- TTU pass offense (0.35 PPA) vs. OKST pass defense (0.44 allowed) — edge OKST.
- OKST pass offense (0.07 PPA) vs. TTU pass defense (-0.00 allowed) — edge OKST.
Drive-by-drive
OKST 2/15 scoring drives← own end zone →TTU 4/13 scoring drives
OKSTTD1 pl, 99 yds· own 35Q1
OKSTPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q1
TTUTD1 pl, 26 yds· opp 26Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
TTU up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 170 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
TTU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech?
Oklahoma State 0, Texas Tech 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TTU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had TTU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.