Notre Dame vs. Stanford: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NDTeam statsSTAN
- Q4 4:00STANMarcus Brown 3 Yd pass from Charlie Mirer (Emmet Kenney Kick)49–20
- Q4 9:08NDAneyas Williams 51 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)49–13
- Q4 12:15STANBryce Farrell 9 Yd pass from Elijah Brown (Emmet Kenney Kick)42–13
- Q3 2:09STANEmmet Kenney 44 Yd Field Goal 42–6
- Q3 12:43NDJordan Faison 6 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Erik Schmidt Kick)42–3
- Q2 0:17NDJadarian Price 12 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Erik Schmidt Kick)35–3
- Q2 2:38STANEmmet Kenney 39 Yd Field Goal 28–3
- Q2 7:26NDAneyas Williams 2 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)28–0
- Q2 14:33NDLuke Talich 84 Yd pass from Joshua Burnham (Erik Schmidt Kick)21–0
- Q1 1:52NDJadarian Price 1 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:43NDJeremiyah Love 2 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassCJ Carr 17/27, 205 YDS, 2 TD
- RushAneyas Williams 10 CAR, 83 YDS, 2 TD
- RecLuke Talich 1 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
- PassElijah Brown 18/37, 204 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushCole Tabb 11 CAR, 32 YDS
- RecSam Roush 4 REC, 73 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsND up 36 entering the 4th quarter. Across 339 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Notre Dame vs. Stanford?
Notre Dame 49, Stanford 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ND) was correct.
| ND | STAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 524 | Total yards | 312 |
| 337 | Passing yards | 226 |
| 187 | Rushing yards | 86 |
| 24 | First downs | 16 |
| 11-18 | 3rd down | 8-19 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 23/36 | Comp/Att | 20/40 |
| 9.4 | Yards per pass | 5.7 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 2.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-35 | Penalties | 3-23 |
| 30:35 | Possession | 29:25 |
Costliest call
Q2 14:33 ND go for it on 4th & 9 at ND 16. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.19 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:00STANMarcus Brown 3 Yd pass from Charlie Mirer (Emmet Kenney Kick)49–20
- Q4 9:08NDAneyas Williams 51 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)49–13
- Q4 12:15STANBryce Farrell 9 Yd pass from Elijah Brown (Emmet Kenney Kick)42–13
- Q3 2:09STANEmmet Kenney 44 Yd Field Goal 42–6
- Q3 12:43NDJordan Faison 6 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Erik Schmidt Kick)42–3
- Q2 0:17NDJadarian Price 12 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Erik Schmidt Kick)35–3
- Q2 2:38STANEmmet Kenney 39 Yd Field Goal 28–3
- Q2 7:26NDAneyas Williams 2 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)28–0
- Q2 14:33NDLuke Talich 84 Yd pass from Joshua Burnham (Erik Schmidt Kick)21–0
- Q1 1:52NDJadarian Price 1 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:43NDJeremiyah Love 2 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (STAN Elo 1315, ND Elo 2263 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects STAN +35.5 (2% to win) — 2.5 points clear of ND's market line of +33. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNotre Dame leads 25–14 · Notre Dame has won 3 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| ND | STAN | |
|---|---|---|
| +38.3 (#2) | CORE overall | -12.6 (#102) |
| +20 / -18 | offense / defense | -11 / +1 |
| 3.84 | points / drive | 1.42 |
| 1.28 | allowed / drive | 2.33 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 37% |
| +0 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →