| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ND | 14 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 49 |
| STAN | 0 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 20 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (STAN Elo 1315, ND Elo 2263) plus home-field advantage. That projects STAN +35.5 (0% to win) — 2.5 points of value on ND versus the market line of +33.
ND up 36 entering the 4th quarter. Across 339 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Notre Dame 49, Stanford 20.
Yes — the model's pick (ND) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ND pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(14:44) No Huddle #40 J.Burnham pass complete short middle to #28 L.Talich caught at UND25, for 84 yards to the STAN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:33, 1ST DOWN #18 E.Schmidt kick attempt good (H: #10 T.Buchner, LS: #96 J.Vinci)
(09:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush middle for 51 yards gain to the STAN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:08, 1ST DOWN #18 E.Schmidt kick attempt good (H: #10 T.Buchner, LS: #96 J.Vinci)
(14:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete deep middle to #6 J.Faison caught at STAN23, for 54 yards to the STAN23, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →
