Northwestern vs. Nebraska: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NUTeam statsNEB
- Q4 2:44NEBEmmett Johnson 4 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)21–28
- Q4 11:16NUCaleb Komolafe 56 Yd Run (Preston Stone Pass to Hayden Eligon II for Two-Point Conversion)21–21
- Q3 2:25NUCaleb Komolafe 4 Yd Run (Jack Olsen Kick)13–21
- Q3 7:39NEBNyziah Hunter 12 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)6–21
- Q3 14:47NEBKenneth Williams 95 Yd Kickoff Return (Kyle Cunanan Kick)6–14
- Q2 3:01NUJack Olsen 25 Yd Field Goal 6–7
- Q1 3:28NUJack Olsen 40 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 7:49NEBEmmett Johnson 9 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassPreston Stone 15/29, 159 YDS, 2 INT
- RushCaleb Komolafe 17 CAR, 125 YDS, 2 TD
- RecGriffin Wilde 3 REC, 54 YDS
- PassDylan Raiola 16/22, 141 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushEmmett Johnson 27 CAR, 124 YDS, 2 TD
- RecNyziah Hunter 6 REC, 70 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNEB up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:44NEB +52%
Shotgun #21 E.Johnson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NU 00 TOUCHDOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD
- Q4 11:16NU +42%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush right for 56 yards gain to the NEB00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN #80 H.Eligon II pass attempt Successful
- Q3 14:47NEB +20%
PENALTY NEB UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#35 M.Nelson) 15 yards from NU 25 to NU 40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
- Q1 7:49NEB +15%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 E.Johnson rush left for 9 yards gain to the NU 00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 10:57NU +15%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short right to #6 J.Himon II caught at NEB33, for 3 yards to the NEB31 (#0 J.Wright), out of bounds
- Q4 11:10NEB +14%
No Huddle-Shotgun #15 D.Raiola pass intercepted by #37 M.Uihlein at NEB39 #37 M.Uihlein return 5 yards to the NEB34 (#2 J.Barney Jr.)
FAQ
What was the final score of Northwestern vs. Nebraska?
Northwestern 21, Nebraska 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NEB) was correct.
| NU | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| 331 | Total yards | 296 |
| 159 | Passing yards | 141 |
| 172 | Rushing yards | 155 |
| 18 | First downs | 18 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 6-12 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 15/29 | Comp/Att | 16/22 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 5.7 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-29 | Penalties | 4-39 |
| 29:44 | Possession | 30:16 |
Costliest call
Q3 8:43 NEB punt on 4th & 1 at NEB 32. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.94 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:44NEBEmmett Johnson 4 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)21–28
- Q4 11:16NUCaleb Komolafe 56 Yd Run (Preston Stone Pass to Hayden Eligon II for Two-Point Conversion)21–21
- Q3 2:25NUCaleb Komolafe 4 Yd Run (Jack Olsen Kick)13–21
- Q3 7:39NEBNyziah Hunter 12 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)6–21
- Q3 14:47NEBKenneth Williams 95 Yd Kickoff Return (Kyle Cunanan Kick)6–14
- Q2 3:01NUJack Olsen 25 Yd Field Goal 6–7
- Q1 3:28NUJack Olsen 40 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 7:49NEBEmmett Johnson 9 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NEB Elo 1641, NU Elo 1534 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NEB -6.7 (68% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNebraska leads 11–7 · Nebraska has won 2 straight · 61% have been one-possession games
| NU | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.8 (#67) | CORE overall | -1.8 (#68) |
| -0 / +1 | offense / defense | +0 / +2 |
| 2.35 | points / drive | 2.52 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 2.50 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →