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Northwestern vs. Nebraska: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Oct 25, 4:00 PM
Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)Conference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NU | 3 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 21 |
| NEB | 7 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 28 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NEB 1641
NU 1534
Projected spread
NEB -6.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
NEB
69% to win
Market spread
NEB -7
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
69%
NEB · market 71%
Our model blends Elo ratings (NEB Elo 1641, NU Elo 1534) plus home-field advantage. That projects NEB -6.7 (69% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
NEB (top)NU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NEB 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
NU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedNEB
Offense
0.15
PPA / play
0.1643%
Success rate
46%1.18
Explosiveness
1.093.21
Pts / opportunity
3.9376%
Power success
76%Defense
0.17
PPA allowed / play
0.2145%
Success rate allowed
43%1.15
Explosiveness allowed
1.2715%
Havoc rate
14%15%
Stuff rate
16%Key matchups · Pro
- NU rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. NEB rush defense (0.25 allowed) — edge NEB.
- NEB rush offense (0.13 PPA) vs. NU rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge NU.
- NU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. NEB pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge NU.
Drive-by-drive
NU 5/11 scoring drives← own end zone →NEB 3/9 scoring drives
NUPUNT6 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q1
NEBTD9 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q1
NUFG9 pl, 53 yds· own 25Q1
NEBMISS14 pl, 40 yds· own 34Q1
NUFG15 pl, 67 yds· own 26Q2
NEBFUM8 pl, 51 yds· own 25Q2
NUEND1 pl, 3 yds· own 24Q2
NUTD1 pl, 95 yds· own 35Q3
NUPUNT6 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q3
NEBPUNT5 pl, 21 yds· own 11Q3
NUINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 15Q3
NEBTD3 pl, 32 yds· opp 32Q3
NUTD9 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q3
NEBPUNT6 pl, 19 yds· own 23Q3
NUTD4 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q4
NEBINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 35Q4
NUINT4 pl, 6 yds· opp 34Q4
NEBTD13 pl, 60 yds· own 36Q4
NUDOWNS6 pl, 39 yds· own 26Q4
NEBEND3 pl, 14 yds· own 35Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
NEB up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
85%
NEB went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Northwestern vs. Nebraska?
Northwestern 21, Nebraska 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NEB) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had NEB pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.