Northern Illinois vs. Toledo: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NIUTeam statsTOL
- Q4 13:43TOLKenji Christian 16 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)3–42
- Q3 4:53TOLKenji Christian 10 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)3–35
- Q2 0:51TOLJunior Vandeross III 19 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)3–28
- Q2 5:08TOLChip Trayanum 5 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)3–21
- Q2 11:01TOLTucker Gleason 2 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)3–14
- Q1 9:25NIUAndrew Glass 50 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 14:45TOLTrayvon Rudolph 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Dylan Cunanan Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NIU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TOL did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.2 vs 3rd & 4.4
- PassJosh Holst 5/13, 87 YDS
- RushElijah Porter 2 CAR, 21 YDS
- RecRickey Taylor Jr. 3 REC, 69 YDS
- PassTucker Gleason 25/31, 309 YDS, 2 TD
- RushChip Trayanum 11 CAR, 36 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJunior Vandeross III 6 REC, 97 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTOL up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 11:01TOL +11%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 5:08TOL +5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Trayanum rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 9:25NIU +5%
#60 A.Glass field goal attempt from 50 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Northern Illinois vs. Toledo?
Northern Illinois 3, Toledo 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TOL) was correct.
| NIU | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| 203 | Total yards | 443 |
| 141 | Passing yards | 309 |
| 62 | Rushing yards | 134 |
| 13 | First downs | 23 |
| 2-16 | 3rd down | 9-14 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 11/29 | Comp/Att | 25/33 |
| 4.9 | Yards per pass | 9.4 |
| 1.7 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-60 | Penalties | 10-92 |
| 29:42 | Possession | 30:18 |
Costliest call
Q1 1:09 TOL punt on 4th & 3 at NIU 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.92 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 13:43TOLKenji Christian 16 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)3–42
- Q3 4:53TOLKenji Christian 10 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)3–35
- Q2 0:51TOLJunior Vandeross III 19 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)3–28
- Q2 5:08TOLChip Trayanum 5 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)3–21
- Q2 11:01TOLTucker Gleason 2 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)3–14
- Q1 9:25NIUAndrew Glass 50 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 14:45TOLTrayvon Rudolph 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Dylan Cunanan Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TOL Elo 1505, NIU Elo 1305 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TOL -10.4 (76% to win) — 4.6 points clear of NIU's market line of -15. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesToledo leads 36–17 · Toledo has won 4 straight · 32% have been one-possession games
| NIU | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| -22.4 (#129) | CORE overall | +18.3 (#19) |
| -15 / +8 | offense / defense | +3 / -15 |
| 1.59 | points / drive | 2.25 |
| 2.42 | allowed / drive | 1.17 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -19 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →