Glass BowlConference gameClosing line: TOL -15 · TOL covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIU | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| TOL | 7 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 42 |
Team stats
NIUthis game · better side highlightedTOL
203
Total yards
443141
Passing yards
30962
Rushing yards
13413
First downs
232-16 · 13%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TOL 1505
NIU 1305
Projected spread
TOL -10.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
TOL
78% to win
Market spread
TOL -15
sportsbook line
Model edge
NIU
4.6 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
78%
TOL · market 83%
Our model blends Elo ratings (TOL Elo 1505, NIU Elo 1305) plus home-field advantage. That projects TOL -10.4 (78% to win) — 4.6 points of value on NIU versus the market line of -15.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
TOL (top)NIU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TOL 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- NIU rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. TOL rush defense (-0.01 allowed) — edge NIU.
- TOL pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. NIU pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge TOL.
- NIU pass offense (0.00 PPA) vs. TOL pass defense (-0.08 allowed) — edge NIU.
Drive-by-drive
NIU 2/14 scoring drives← own end zone →TOL 5/11 scoring drives
NIUFG12 pl, 42 yds· own 25Q1
NIUTD1 pl, 96 yds· own 35Q1
TOLPUNT6 pl, 27 yds· own 12Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
TOL up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
TOL went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Northern Illinois vs. Toledo?
Northern Illinois 3, Toledo 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TOL) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had TOL pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.