Northern Illinois vs. Ohio: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NIUTeam statsOHIO
- Q4 2:52OHIOJalen Thomeson 91 Yd Fumble Return (David Dellenbach Kick)21–48
- Q4 12:08NIUChavon Wright 1 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)21–41
- Q4 14:55OHIOSieh Bangura 1 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)14–41
- Q3 6:04NIUDeAree Rogers 50 Yd pass from Josh Holst (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)14–34
- Q3 7:40OHIODuncan Brune 4 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)8–34
- Q3 13:49OHIODuncan Brune 66 Yd Run (David Dellenbach PAT failed)8–27
- Q2 10:08NIUDevon Akers 7 Yd pass from Josh Holst (Josh Holst Pass to George Dimopoulos for Two-Point Conversion)8–21
- Q2 12:13OHIOSieh Bangura 5 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)0–21
- Q1 5:03OHIOParker Navarro 9 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:47OHIOSieh Bangura 2 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NIU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and OHIO did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.1 vs 3rd & 4.1
- PassJosh Holst 21/29, 161 YDS, 2 TD
- RushTelly Johnson Jr. 11 CAR, 64 YDS
- RecDeAree Rogers 7 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD
- PassParker Navarro 17/23, 205 YDS, 1 INT
- RushSieh Bangura 22 CAR, 147 YDS, 3 TD
- RecChase Hendricks 10 REC, 108 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOHIO up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Northern Illinois vs. Ohio?
Northern Illinois 21, Ohio 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OHIO) was correct.
| NIU | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| 293 | Total yards | 538 |
| 161 | Passing yards | 205 |
| 132 | Rushing yards | 333 |
| 15 | First downs | 27 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 9-13 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 21/30 | Comp/Att | 17/23 |
| 5.4 | Yards per pass | 8.9 |
| 5.1 | Yards per rush | 6.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2-20 | Penalties | 13-75 |
| 24:10 | Possession | 35:50 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:20 OHIO punt on 4th & 19 at NIU 36. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.75 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:52OHIOJalen Thomeson 91 Yd Fumble Return (David Dellenbach Kick)21–48
- Q4 12:08NIUChavon Wright 1 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)21–41
- Q4 14:55OHIOSieh Bangura 1 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)14–41
- Q3 6:04NIUDeAree Rogers 50 Yd pass from Josh Holst (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)14–34
- Q3 7:40OHIODuncan Brune 4 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)8–34
- Q3 13:49OHIODuncan Brune 66 Yd Run (David Dellenbach PAT failed)8–27
- Q2 10:08NIUDevon Akers 7 Yd pass from Josh Holst (Josh Holst Pass to George Dimopoulos for Two-Point Conversion)8–21
- Q2 12:13OHIOSieh Bangura 5 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)0–21
- Q1 5:03OHIOParker Navarro 9 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:47OHIOSieh Bangura 2 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OHIO Elo 1568, NIU Elo 1341 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OHIO -11.5 (78% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNorthern Illinois leads 14–12 · 50% have been one-possession games
| NIU | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| -22.4 (#129) | CORE overall | -1.1 (#66) |
| -15 / +8 | offense / defense | +1 / +2 |
| 1.59 | points / drive | 2.50 |
| 2.42 | allowed / drive | 1.96 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| -19 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →