Davis Wade StadiumClosing line: MSST -24 · MSST covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIU | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| MSST | 7 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 38 |
Team stats
NIUthis game · better side highlightedMSST
268
Total yards
452142
Passing yards
160126
Rushing yards
29214
First downs
231-9 · 11%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MSST 1436
NIU 1453
Projected spread
MSST -1.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
MSST
55% to win
Market spread
MSST -24
sportsbook line
Model edge
NIU
22.3 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
55%
MSST · market 92%
Our model blends Elo ratings (MSST Elo 1436, NIU Elo 1453) plus home-field advantage. That projects MSST -1.7 (55% to win) — 22.3 points of value on NIU versus the market line of -24.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MSST (top)NIU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MSST 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- NIU pass offense (0.00 PPA) vs. MSST pass defense (0.30 allowed) — edge MSST.
- MSST rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. NIU rush defense (0.17 allowed) — edge NIU.
- NIU rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. MSST rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge MSST.
Drive-by-drive
NIU 2/10 scoring drives← own end zone →MSST 6/10 scoring drives
NIUFG10 pl, 63 yds· own 25Q1
MSSTTD13 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
NIUPUNT5 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
MSST up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
94%
MSST went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Northern Illinois vs. Mississippi State?
Northern Illinois 10, Mississippi State 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MSST) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had MSST pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.