Northern Illinois vs. Mississippi State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NIUTeam statsMSST
- Q4 4:31MSSTXavier Gayten 1 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)10–38
- Q4 11:18MSSTDavon Booth 6 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)10–31
- Q3 0:54MSSTKyle Ferrie 48 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q3 12:55MSSTDavon Booth 1 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)10–21
- Q2 11:31MSSTSeydou Traore 1 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)10–14
- Q2 14:53NIUDeAree Rogers 24 Yd pass from Josh Holst (Andrew Glass Kick)10–7
- Q1 3:48MSSTBrenen Thompson 10 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)3–7
- Q1 9:41NIUAndrew Glass 30 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NIU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MSST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.4 vs 3rd & 8.3
- PassJosh Holst 14/23, 135 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushChavon Wright 13 CAR, 47 YDS
- RecDeAree Rogers 6 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBlake Shapen 12/20, 160 YDS, 1 TD
- RushFluff Bothwell 17 CAR, 101 YDS
- RecAnthony Evans III 4 REC, 80 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMSST up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 11:31MSST +20%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
- Q2 14:53NIU +20%
Josh Holst pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 24 yds for a TD (Andrew Glass KICK)
- Q3 12:55MSST +18%
Davon Booth run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
- Q3 5:53MSST +5%
Shotgun Booth,Davon rush middle for 15 yards gain to the NIU30 (Finley,Jacob; Beeler,Jasper) PENALTY MSU Holding (West,Sam) 10 yards from NIU45 to MSU45. NO PLAY
- Q3 14:53MSST +5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bothwell,Fluff rush left for 7 yards gain to the MSU32 (Urwiler,Quinton; Beeler,Jasper) PENALTY MSU Holding (Work,Luke) 10 yards from MSU25 to MSU15.…
- Q2 0:35MSST +5%
Ethan Pulliam punt for 51 yds, fair catch by DeAree Rogers at the NIU 17
FAQ
What was the final score of Northern Illinois vs. Mississippi State?
Northern Illinois 10, Mississippi State 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MSST) was correct.
| NIU | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 267 | Total yards | 452 |
| 142 | Passing yards | 160 |
| 125 | Rushing yards | 292 |
| 14 | First downs | 23 |
| 1-9 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 4-4 |
| 15/25 | Comp/Att | 12/20 |
| 5.7 | Yards per pass | 8.0 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 6.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-50 | Penalties | 11-103 |
| 28:05 | Possession | 31:55 |
Costliest call
Q4 9:33 NIU go for it on 4th & 6 at NIU 43. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.21 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:31MSSTXavier Gayten 1 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)10–38
- Q4 11:18MSSTDavon Booth 6 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)10–31
- Q3 0:54MSSTKyle Ferrie 48 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q3 12:55MSSTDavon Booth 1 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)10–21
- Q2 11:31MSSTSeydou Traore 1 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)10–14
- Q2 14:53NIUDeAree Rogers 24 Yd pass from Josh Holst (Andrew Glass Kick)10–7
- Q1 3:48MSSTBrenen Thompson 10 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)3–7
- Q1 9:41NIUAndrew Glass 30 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MSST Elo 1436, NIU Elo 1453 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MSST -1.7 (56% to win) — 22.3 points clear of NIU's market line of -24. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NIU | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| -22.4 (#129) | CORE overall | +0.1 (#64) |
| -15 / +8 | offense / defense | -1 / -1 |
| 1.59 | points / drive | 2.07 |
| 2.42 | allowed / drive | 2.54 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -19 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →