Warren McGuirk Alumni StadiumConference gameClosing line: NIU +-9 · NIU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIU | 10 | 21 | 14 | 0 | 45 |
| MASS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
Team stats
NIUthis game · better side highlightedMASS
433
Total yards
262115
Passing yards
197318
Rushing yards
6522
First downs
175-11 · 45%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MASS 805
NIU 1219
Projected spread
MASS +14.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
NIU
85% to win
Market spread
MASS +9
sportsbook line
Model edge
NIU
5.2 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
15%
MASS · market 24%
Our model blends Elo ratings (MASS Elo 805, NIU Elo 1219) plus home-field advantage. That projects MASS +14.2 (15% to win) — 5.2 points of value on NIU versus the market line of +9.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MASS (top)NIU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MASS 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- NIU pass offense (0.00 PPA) vs. MASS pass defense (0.41 allowed) — edge MASS.
- MASS rush offense (-0.03 PPA) vs. NIU rush defense (0.17 allowed) — edge NIU.
- MASS pass offense (0.02 PPA) vs. NIU pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge NIU.
Drive-by-drive
NIU 7/10 scoring drives← own end zone →MASS 1/10 scoring drives
MASSPUNT5 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q1
NIUFG4 pl, 6 yds· opp 25Q1
MASSPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
NIU up 45 entering the 4th quarter. Across 103 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
NIU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Northern Illinois vs. Massachusetts?
Northern Illinois 45, Massachusetts 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NIU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had NIU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.