Northern Illinois vs. Massachusetts: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NIUTeam statsMASS
- Q4 6:13MASSDerek Morris 44 Yd Field Goal 45–3
- Q3 8:16NIUGary Givens 31 Yd pass from Brady Davidson (Andrew Glass Kick)45–0
- Q3 12:05NIUJalen Macon 36 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)38–0
- Q2 1:20NIUJalen Macon 1 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)31–0
- Q2 2:29NIUChavon Wright 1 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)24–0
- Q2 11:42NIUElijah Porter 67 Yd pass from Jalen Macon (Andrew Glass Kick)17–0
- Q1 4:53NIUJalen Macon 13 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)10–0
- Q1 10:41NIUAndrew Glass 37 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassJalen Macon 3/4, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJalen Macon 12 CAR, 98 YDS, 3 TD
- RecElijah Porter 1 REC, 67 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBrandon Rose 11/20, 101 YDS
- RushAJ Hairston Jr 3 CAR, 23 YDS
- RecJacquon Gibson 6 REC, 64 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNIU up 45 entering the 4th quarter. Across 103 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 5:48NIU +8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Macon rush right for 3 yards gain to the UMass13, out of bounds at UMass13
FAQ
What was the final score of Northern Illinois vs. Massachusetts?
Northern Illinois 45, Massachusetts 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NIU) was correct.
| NIU | MASS | |
|---|---|---|
| 433 | Total yards | 262 |
| 115 | Passing yards | 197 |
| 318 | Rushing yards | 65 |
| 22 | First downs | 17 |
| 5-11 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 6/8 | Comp/Att | 25/42 |
| 14.4 | Yards per pass | 4.7 |
| 5.8 | Yards per rush | 2.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-35 | Penalties | 3-35 |
| 33:41 | Possession | 26:19 |
Costliest call
Q3 0:08 MASS punt on 4th & 3 at MASS 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:13MASSDerek Morris 44 Yd Field Goal 45–3
- Q3 8:16NIUGary Givens 31 Yd pass from Brady Davidson (Andrew Glass Kick)45–0
- Q3 12:05NIUJalen Macon 36 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)38–0
- Q2 1:20NIUJalen Macon 1 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)31–0
- Q2 2:29NIUChavon Wright 1 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)24–0
- Q2 11:42NIUElijah Porter 67 Yd pass from Jalen Macon (Andrew Glass Kick)17–0
- Q1 4:53NIUJalen Macon 13 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)10–0
- Q1 10:41NIUAndrew Glass 37 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MASS Elo 805, NIU Elo 1219 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MASS +14.2 (19% to win) — 5.2 points clear of NIU's market line of +9. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NIU | MASS | |
|---|---|---|
| -22.4 (#129) | CORE overall | -40.3 (#136) |
| -15 / +8 | offense / defense | -22 / +18 |
| 1.59 | points / drive | 0.88 |
| 2.42 | allowed / drive | 3.71 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 43% |
| -19 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →