North Texas vs. UAB: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNTTeam statsUAB
- Q4 3:00UNTCameron Dorner 30 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)53–24
- Q4 12:00UABIsaiah Jacobs 6 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)46–24
- Q3 3:26UNTCaleb Hawkins 5 Yd Run (Drew Mestemaker Pass to Wyatt Young for Two-Point Conversion)46–18
- Q3 6:37UABJonah Delange 46 Yd Field Goal 38–18
- Q3 9:37UNTWyatt Young 7 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)38–15
- Q3 11:55UABRyder Burton 1 Yd Run (Jalen Kitna Pass to Brandon Hawkins Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)31–15
- Q2 3:23UNTKali Nguma 46 Yd Field Goal 31–7
- Q2 5:34UABBrandon Hawkins Jr. 32 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)28–7
- Q2 11:07UNTCaleb Hawkins 9 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)28–0
- Q1 3:11UNTCaleb Hawkins 11 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)21–0
- Q1 4:15UNTCaleb Hawkins 4 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:48UNTCaleb Hawkins 1 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UAB played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UNT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.8 vs 3rd & 5.0
- PassDrew Mestemaker 18/25, 298 YDS, 2 TD
- RushCaleb Hawkins 27 CAR, 189 YDS, 5 TD
- RecWyatt Young 8 REC, 143 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJalen Kitna 26/45, 281 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushJevon Jackson 16 CAR, 159 YDS
- RecBrandon Hawkins Jr. 6 REC, 127 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNT up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of North Texas vs. UAB?
North Texas 53, UAB 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNT) was correct.
| UNT | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| 506 | Total yards | 478 |
| 298 | Passing yards | 288 |
| 208 | Rushing yards | 190 |
| 22 | First downs | 26 |
| 6-10 | 3rd down | 9-17 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 4-6 |
| 18/25 | Comp/Att | 27/47 |
| 11.9 | Yards per pass | 6.1 |
| 6.1 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 3-12 |
| 24:51 | Possession | 35:09 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:00UNTCameron Dorner 30 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)53–24
- Q4 12:00UABIsaiah Jacobs 6 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)46–24
- Q3 3:26UNTCaleb Hawkins 5 Yd Run (Drew Mestemaker Pass to Wyatt Young for Two-Point Conversion)46–18
- Q3 6:37UABJonah Delange 46 Yd Field Goal 38–18
- Q3 9:37UNTWyatt Young 7 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)38–15
- Q3 11:55UABRyder Burton 1 Yd Run (Jalen Kitna Pass to Brandon Hawkins Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)31–15
- Q2 3:23UNTKali Nguma 46 Yd Field Goal 31–7
- Q2 5:34UABBrandon Hawkins Jr. 32 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)28–7
- Q2 11:07UNTCaleb Hawkins 9 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)28–0
- Q1 3:11UNTCaleb Hawkins 11 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)21–0
- Q1 4:15UNTCaleb Hawkins 4 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:48UNTCaleb Hawkins 1 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UAB Elo 1223, UNT Elo 1690 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UAB +16.3 (15% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUAB leads 6–3 · North Texas has won 2 straight · 56% have been one-possession games
| UNT | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.9 (#34) | CORE overall | -15.8 (#112) |
| +18 / +6 | offense / defense | -4 / +11 |
| 4.00 | points / drive | 2.12 |
| 2.36 | allowed / drive | 3.61 |
| 14% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →