| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNT | 21 | 10 | 15 | 7 | 53 |
| UAB | 0 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 24 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UAB Elo 1223, UNT Elo 1690) plus home-field advantage. That projects UAB +16.3 (11% to win), essentially in line with the market.
UNT up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
North Texas 53, UAB 24.
Yes — the model's pick (UNT) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UNT pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(08:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Kitna pass intercepted by #0 W.Jones II at UNT01 QB hurried by #93 T.Washington #0 W.Jones II return 0 yards to the. The previous play is under automatic review - "Interception". CALL UPHELD
(00:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush left for 29 yards gain to the UNT35 (#14 Q.Hammonds), 1ST DOWN
(01:53) Shotgun #7 J.Kitna pass complete deep middle to #6 B.Hawkins Jr. caught at UNT39, for 36 yards to the UNT25 (#1 D.Fisher), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
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