| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNT | 7 | 21 | 14 | 14 | 56 |
| RICE | 14 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 24 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (RICE Elo 1169, UNT Elo 1716) plus home-field advantage. That projects RICE +19.5 (7% to win), essentially in line with the market.
UNT up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
North Texas 56, Rice 24.
Yes — the model's pick (UNT) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UNT pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(03:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short right to #10 W.Young caught at UNT20, for 84 yards to the Rice00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:05, 1ST DOWN #40 K.Nguma kick attempt good (H: #41 S.Evans, LS: #48 C.Yates)
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete deep middle to #10 W.Young caught at Rice30, for 74 yards to the Rice00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:52, 1ST DOWN #40 K.Nguma kick attempt good (H: #41 S.Evans, LS: #48 C.Yates)
(06:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete deep right to #6 T.Williams III caught at Rice11, for 56 yards to the Rice00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:34, 1ST DOWN #40 K.Nguma kick attempt good (H: #41 S.Evans, LS: #48 C.Yates)
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