North Texas vs. Rice: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

North Texas9-1

▸

Rice5-5

Final

Rice StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
UNT	7	21	14	14	56
RICE	14	0	7	3	24

UNTTeam statsRICE

640Total yards397

469Pass101

171Rush296

25First downs24

1-63rd down6-14

0Turnovers0

22:15Possession37:45

Q4 3:46UNTAshton Gray 11 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)56–24
Q4 5:38RICEEnock Gota 27 Yd Field Goal 49–24
Q4 12:10UNTCaleb Hawkins 8 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)49–21
Q3 0:04RICEAaron Turner 15 Yd pass from Chase Jenkins (Enock Gota Kick)42–21
Q3 3:14UNTCaleb Hawkins 7 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)42–14
Q3 12:55UNTDrew Mestemaker 1 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)35–14
Q2 3:05UNTWyatt Young 84 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)28–14
Q2 6:34UNTTre Williams III 56 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)21–14
Q2 10:26UNTCaleb Hawkins 4 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)14–14
Q1 0:52UNTWyatt Young 74 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)7–14
Q1 1:42RICEAaron Turner 12 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)0–14
Q1 8:56RICEChase Jenkins 18 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Model line

UNT −19.5

market UNT −18.5

Biggest swing

RICE +19%

Q1 1:42

Against the number

UNT covered

line UNT −18.5

What the numbers say

RICE played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UNT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.4 vs 3rd & 4.7

RICE favored ↑50%UNT favored ↓

GridpexUNT 100%

Closing line

UNT −18.5

Closing total

57.0

Model line

UNT −19.5

Actual result

UNT 56 – 24 RICE

North Texas

PassDrew Mestemaker 19/23, 469 YDS, 3 TD
RushCaleb Hawkins 20 CAR, 97 YDS, 3 TD
RecWyatt Young 8 REC, 295 YDS, 2 TD

Rice

PassChase Jenkins 14/21, 101 YDS, 1 TD
RushAaron Turner 9 CAR, 78 YDS, 1 TD
RecAaron Turner 8 REC, 58 YDS, 1 TD

27.3sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

130

Points / snap

0.62

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

UNT up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

UNT went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WUtah vs Florida24-11 WMiami vs Miami (OH)38-3 WJames Madison vs Bucknell38-3 WTroy vs Stephen F. Austin48-30 WNorthwestern vs UTEP38-7

Q1 1:42RICE +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Turner rush right for 12 yards gain to the UNT00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
Q1 0:52UNT +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete deep middle to #10 W.Young caught at Rice30, for 74 yards to the Rice00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
Q2 10:26UNT +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush right for 4 yards gain to the Rice00 TOUCHDOWN
Q1 8:56RICE +12%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Jenkins rush right for 18 yards gain to the UNT00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
Q2 6:34UNT +10%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete deep right to #6 T.Williams III caught at Rice11, for 56 yards to the Rice00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
Q2 3:05UNT +6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short right to #10 W.Young caught at UNT20, for 84 yards to the Rice00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN

FAQ

What was the final score of North Texas vs. Rice?

North Texas 56, Rice 24.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (UNT) was correct.

UNT

RICE

66%

Success rate

43%

1.38

EPA / pass

0.15

0.44

EPA / rush

0.23

70%

Early-down success

42%

70%

Pass success

27%

63%

Rush success

49%

20%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

16%

Stuffed rush rate

15%

42%

Pass rate

29%

4.7

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.4

UNT

4.7 yards to go on 3rd down

55 scrimmage snaps

RICE

7.4 yards to go on 3rd down

75 scrimmage snaps

UNT		RICE
640	Total yards	397
469	Passing yards	101
171	Rushing yards	296
25	First downs	24
1-6	3rd down	6-14
3-3	4th down	1-2
19/23	Comp/Att	14/21
20.4	Yards per pass	4.8
5.3	Yards per rush	5.6
0	Turnovers	0
2-10	Penalties	1-5
22:15	Possession	37:45

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

RICE 1169

UNT 1716

Projected spread

RICE +19.5

incl. home edge

Model pick

UNT

89% to win

Market spread

RICE +18.5

sportsbook line

Model vs market

Agrees

aligned w/ market

Win prob: model / mkt

11%

RICE · market 12%

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (RICE Elo 1169, UNT Elo 1716 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects RICE +19.5 (11% to win), essentially in line with the market.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation

Season form — 2025

nationally ranked

UNT2025 season · national rank shownRICE

511.41st

Total yards / game

302.4127th

7.23rd

Yards / play

4.5133rd

317.32nd

Passing yards / game

97.6135th

194.125th

Rushing yards / game

204.815th

45.9%24th

3rd down %

34.0%116th

382.177th

Yards allowed / game

404.1101st

42.4%105th

3rd down % allowed

43.5%115th

+914th

Turnover margin

-498th

5.647th

Penalties / game

4.823rd

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

The series14 meetings since 1988

North Texas leads 9–5 · North Texas has won 4 straight · 36% have been one-possession games

Opponent-adjusted profile2025

UNT		RICE
+11.9 (#34)	CORE overall	-26.8 (#132)
+18 / +6	offense / defense	-20 / +7
4.00	points / drive	1.40
2.36	allowed / drive	3.09
14%	three-and-outs	38%
+7	pass over expected	-24

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →Play-calling →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

Game Info

Kickoff: Sat, Nov 22, 7:30 PM EST
Venue: Rice Stadium
Setting: Conference game
Model line: UNT -19.5

The Model's Pick

North Texas

to win · 89%

✓ Hit

Projected spreadUNT -19.5

Market88%

Game Leaders

North Texas

Pass Drew Mestemaker19/23, 469 yds, 3 TD
Rush Caleb Hawkins20 car, 97 yds, 3 TD
Rec Wyatt Young8 rec, 295 yds, 2 TD

Rice

Pass Chase Jenkins14/21, 101 yds, 1 TD
Rush Aaron Turner9 car, 78 yds, 1 TD
Rec Aaron Turner8 rec, 58 yds, 1 TD

Biggest Plays

North Texas+6.6 EPA
(03:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short right to #10 W.Young caught at UNT20, for 84 yards to the Rice00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:05, 1ST DOWN #40 K.Nguma kick attempt good (H: #41 S.Evans, LS: #48 C.Yates)
North Texas+6.6 EPA
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete deep middle to #10 W.Young caught at Rice30, for 74 yards to the Rice00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:52, 1ST DOWN #40 K.Nguma kick attempt good (H: #41 S.Evans, LS: #48 C.Yates)
North Texas+4.1 EPA
(06:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete deep right to #6 T.Williams III caught at Rice11, for 56 yards to the Rice00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:34, 1ST DOWN #40 K.Nguma kick attempt good (H: #41 S.Evans, LS: #48 C.Yates)

UNTTeam statsRICE

Scoring plays

How the model called it

What the numbers say

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

What decided it

FAQ

What was the final score of North Texas vs. Rice?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Season form — 2025

The matchup, in context

Key matchups

North Texas vs. Rice: Final Score & Recap

UNTTeam statsRICE

How the model called it

What the numbers say

What was the final score of North Texas vs. Rice?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Key matchups