| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNM | 7 | 7 | 0 | 21 | 35 |
| UCLA | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UCLA Elo 1407, UNM Elo 1332) plus home-field advantage. That projects UCLA -5.4 (66% to win) — 10.1 points of value on UNM versus the market line of -15.5.
UNM up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
New Mexico 35, UCLA 10.
No — the model picked UCLA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had UCLA pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Jack Layne pass complete to Damon Bankston for 43 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
Jack Layne run for no gain to the UCLA 3
Deshaun Buchanan run for 2 yds to the UCLA 3 Deshaun Buchanan fumbled, recovered by UNM Devin Aupiu
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