Williams Stadium (VA)Conference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NMSU | 0 | 6 | 14 | 7 | 27 |
| LIB | 3 | 17 | 0 | 10 | 30 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
LIB 1426
NMSU 1229
Projected spread
LIB -10.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
LIB
78% to win
Market spread
LIB -11
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
78%
LIB · market 78%
Our model blends Elo ratings (LIB Elo 1426, NMSU Elo 1229) plus home-field advantage. That projects LIB -10.3 (78% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
LIB (top)NMSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: LIB 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- NMSU rush offense (-0.09 PPA) vs. LIB rush defense (0.19 allowed) — edge LIB.
- LIB rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. NMSU rush defense (0.00 allowed) — edge LIB.
- NMSU pass offense (0.17 PPA) vs. LIB pass defense (0.25 allowed) — edge LIB.
Drive-by-drive
NMSU 6/12 scoring drives← own end zone →LIB 5/11 scoring drives
NMSUPUNT7 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q1
LIBINT8 pl, 54 yds· own 14Q1
NMSUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 21Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
50%
LIB win rate
How often the home team won from here
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico State vs. Liberty?
New Mexico State 27, Liberty 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LIB) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had LIB pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.