New Mexico State vs. Liberty: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NMSUTeam statsLIB
- Q4 0:36LIBEvan Dickens 8 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)27–30
- Q4 8:21LIBJay Billingsley 29 Yd Field Goal 27–23
- Q4 12:19NMSUBrodie Malone-Bradford 20 Yd pass from Logan Fife (Ryan Hawk Kick)27–20
- Q3 1:23NMSUDonovan Faupel 20 Yd pass from Logan Fife (Ryan Hawk Kick)20–20
- Q3 8:43NMSUKadarius Calloway 2 Yd Run (Ryan Hawk Kick)13–20
- Q2 0:11LIBJay Billingsley 43 Yd Field Goal 6–20
- Q2 1:07NMSURyan Hawk 24 Yd Field Goal 6–17
- Q2 5:08LIBEvan Dickens 8 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)3–17
- Q2 9:49LIBJulian Gray 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Jay Billingsley Kick)3–10
- Q2 10:04NMSURyan Hawk 27 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 2:17LIBJay Billingsley 28 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassLogan Fife 20/37, 242 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKadarius Calloway 18 CAR, 84 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTK King 5 REC, 68 YDS
- PassEthan Vasko 20/30, 179 YDS, 2 INT
- RushEvan Dickens 13 CAR, 50 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDonte Lee Jr. 6 REC, 55 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:36LIB +88%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush left for 8 yards gain to the NMST00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 11:37LIB +37%
#32 M.Dean punt 39 yards to the LU14
- Q4 12:19NMSU +35%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 L.Fife pass complete deep left to #19 B.Malone-Bradford caught at LU00, for 20 yards to the LU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 3:46NMSU +31%
#32 M.Dean punt 31 yards to the LU08 fair catch by #6 R.Smith at LU08
- Q4 12:19NMSU +27%
#17 R.Hawk kickoff 0 yards to the NMST35 PENALTY LU Holding (#10 R.Moore, Jr.) 10 yards from NMST35 to NMST45. NO PLAY
- Q3 1:23NMSU +27%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 L.Fife pass complete deep left to #5 D.Faupel caught at LU00, for 20 yards to the LU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico State vs. Liberty?
New Mexico State 27, Liberty 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LIB) was correct.
| NMSU | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| 388 | Total yards | 293 |
| 242 | Passing yards | 179 |
| 146 | Rushing yards | 114 |
| 23 | First downs | 19 |
| 10-17 | 3rd down | 3-10 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 20/37 | Comp/Att | 20/30 |
| 6.5 | Yards per pass | 6.0 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 6-58 | Penalties | 6-62 |
| 33:53 | Possession | 26:07 |
Costliest call
Q2 8:07 NMSU punt on 4th & 1 at NMSU 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:36LIBEvan Dickens 8 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)27–30
- Q4 8:21LIBJay Billingsley 29 Yd Field Goal 27–23
- Q4 12:19NMSUBrodie Malone-Bradford 20 Yd pass from Logan Fife (Ryan Hawk Kick)27–20
- Q3 1:23NMSUDonovan Faupel 20 Yd pass from Logan Fife (Ryan Hawk Kick)20–20
- Q3 8:43NMSUKadarius Calloway 2 Yd Run (Ryan Hawk Kick)13–20
- Q2 0:11LIBJay Billingsley 43 Yd Field Goal 6–20
- Q2 1:07NMSURyan Hawk 24 Yd Field Goal 6–17
- Q2 5:08LIBEvan Dickens 8 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)3–17
- Q2 9:49LIBJulian Gray 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Jay Billingsley Kick)3–10
- Q2 10:04NMSURyan Hawk 27 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 2:17LIBJay Billingsley 28 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LIB Elo 1426, NMSU Elo 1229 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LIB -10.3 (76% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesLiberty leads 7–2 · Liberty has won 4 straight · 56% have been one-possession games
| NMSU | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| -17.5 (#120) | CORE overall | -7.1 (#88) |
| -12 / +6 | offense / defense | +2 / +9 |
| 1.66 | points / drive | 2.25 |
| 2.21 | allowed / drive | 2.59 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +9 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →