| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCSU | 7 | 14 | 0 | 13 | 34 |
| PITT | 10 | 21 | 15 | 7 | 53 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (PITT Elo 1645, NCSU Elo 1487) plus home-field advantage. That projects PITT -8.7 (74% to win) — 3.7 points of value on PITT versus the market line of -5.
PITT up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
NC State 34, Pittsburgh 53.
Yes — the model's pick (PITT) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had PITT pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(10:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete deep middle to #3 C.Hicks caught at NC ST45, for 84 yards to the NC ST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:46, 1ST DOWN #6 M.Heintschel pass attempt failed
(14:57) Shotgun #3 H.Smothers rush middle for 65 yards gain to the Pitt00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:46, 1ST DOWN #94 K.Vinesett kick attempt good (H: #98 C.Noonkester, LS: #95 J.Mann)
(03:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 T.Hoffmann pass complete deep right to #7 J.Joly caught at Pitt38, for 59 yards to the Pitt00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:20, 1ST DOWN #94 K.Vinesett kick attempt good (H: #98 C.Noonkester, LS: #95 J.Mann)
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