NC State vs. Pittsburgh: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NCSUTeam statsPITT
- Q4 1:00NCSUNoah Rogers 2 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)34–53
- Q4 6:59PITTJa'Kyrian Turner 6 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski Kick)28–53
- Q4 11:16NCSUTeddy Hoffmann 30 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)28–46
- Q3 1:55PITTTrey Butkowski 43 Yd Field Goal 21–46
- Q3 7:02PITTTrey Butkowski 35 Yd Field Goal 21–43
- Q3 10:46PITTCataurus Hicks 84 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–40
- Q3 12:42PITTTrey Butkowski 41 Yd Field Goal 21–34
- Q2 0:12PITTKenny Johnson 10 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Trey Butkowski Kick)21–31
- Q2 3:20NCSUJustin Joly 59 Yd pass from Teddy Hoffmann (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)21–24
- Q2 7:15PITTRaphael Williams Jr. 7 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Trey Butkowski Kick)14–24
- Q2 14:46NCSUHollywood Smothers 65 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)14–17
- Q2 14:57PITTDesmond Reid 2 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski Kick)7–17
- Q1 3:08NCSUJustin Joly 25 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–10
- Q1 6:05PITTTrey Butkowski 34 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 11:13PITTJa'Kyrian Turner 1 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NCSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 18% explosive on a 35% success rate
- PassCJ Bailey 24/40, 225 YDS, 3 TD
- RushHollywood Smothers 8 CAR, 86 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJustin Joly 6 REC, 101 YDS, 2 TD
- PassMason Heintschel 28/48, 423 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJa'Kyrian Turner 13 CAR, 50 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCataurus Hicks 4 REC, 120 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPITT up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 14:46NCSU +20%
Shotgun #3 H.Smothers rush middle for 65 yards gain to the Pitt00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 0:12PITT +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short left to #2 K.Johnson caught at NC ST10, for 10 yards to the NC ST00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 3:20NCSU +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 T.Hoffmann pass complete deep right to #7 J.Joly caught at Pitt38, for 59 yards to the Pitt00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 7:15PITT +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short left to #5 R.Williams Jr. caught at NC ST00, for 7 yards to the NC ST00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 14:57PITT +14%
Shotgun #0 D.Reid rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NC ST00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 3:08NCSU +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete deep middle to #7 J.Joly caught at Pitt02, for 25 yards to the Pitt00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of NC State vs. Pittsburgh?
NC State 34, Pittsburgh 53.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (PITT) was correct.
| NCSU | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| 445 | Total yards | 529 |
| 284 | Passing yards | 423 |
| 161 | Rushing yards | 106 |
| 15 | First downs | 29 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 25/41 | Comp/Att | 28/49 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 8.6 |
| 8.5 | Yards per rush | 3.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-97 | Penalties | 5-46 |
| 25:04 | Possession | 34:56 |
Costliest call
Q2 10:34 NCSU punt on 4th & 6 at PITT 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:00NCSUNoah Rogers 2 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)34–53
- Q4 6:59PITTJa'Kyrian Turner 6 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski Kick)28–53
- Q4 11:16NCSUTeddy Hoffmann 30 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)28–46
- Q3 1:55PITTTrey Butkowski 43 Yd Field Goal 21–46
- Q3 7:02PITTTrey Butkowski 35 Yd Field Goal 21–43
- Q3 10:46PITTCataurus Hicks 84 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–40
- Q3 12:42PITTTrey Butkowski 41 Yd Field Goal 21–34
- Q2 0:12PITTKenny Johnson 10 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Trey Butkowski Kick)21–31
- Q2 3:20NCSUJustin Joly 59 Yd pass from Teddy Hoffmann (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)21–24
- Q2 7:15PITTRaphael Williams Jr. 7 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Trey Butkowski Kick)14–24
- Q2 14:46NCSUHollywood Smothers 65 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)14–17
- Q2 14:57PITTDesmond Reid 2 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski Kick)7–17
- Q1 3:08NCSUJustin Joly 25 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–10
- Q1 6:05PITTTrey Butkowski 34 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 11:13PITTJa'Kyrian Turner 1 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PITT Elo 1645, NCSU Elo 1487 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PITT -8.7 (73% to win) — 3.7 points clear of PITT's market line of -5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesPittsburgh leads 6–5–1 · 25% have been one-possession games
| NCSU | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| +7.0 (#48) | CORE overall | +16.8 (#23) |
| +6 / -1 | offense / defense | +4 / -13 |
| 2.46 | points / drive | 2.32 |
| 2.59 | allowed / drive | 1.96 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →