NC State vs. Miami: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NCSUTeam statsMIA
- Q4 2:18NCSUCJ Bailey 10 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–41
- Q4 11:48MIAMalachi Toney 15 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Bert Auburn Kick)0–41
- Q3 3:51MIACarter Davis 38 Yd Field Goal 0–34
- Q3 9:55MIAElija Lofton 29 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)0–31
- Q2 0:33MIAMalachi Toney 14 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)0–24
- Q2 11:16MIACharMar Brown 1 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)0–17
- Q1 3:36MIAJakobe Thomas 60 Yd Interception Return (Carter Davis Kick)0–10
- Q1 7:13MIACarter Davis 31 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassCJ Bailey 17/30, 120 YDS, 2 INT
- RushJayden Scott 7 CAR, 14 YDS
- RecJayden Scott 3 REC, 40 YDS
- PassCarson Beck 21/27, 291 YDS, 3 TD
- RushGirard Pringle Jr. 17 CAR, 116 YDS
- RecKeelan Marion 7 REC, 96 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMIA up 34 entering the 4th quarter. Across 345 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 3:36MIA +7%
Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass intercepted by #8 J.Thomas at UM40 #8 J.Thomas return 60 yards to the NCS00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of NC State vs. Miami?
NC State 7, Miami 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MIA) was correct.
| NCSU | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 143 | Total yards | 581 |
| 120 | Passing yards | 367 |
| 23 | Rushing yards | 214 |
| 9 | First downs | 28 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 5-10 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 17/30 | Comp/Att | 24/33 |
| 4.0 | Yards per pass | 11.1 |
| 1.2 | Yards per rush | 5.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 8-75 |
| 23:17 | Possession | 36:43 |
Costliest call
Q2 3:16 NCSU punt on 4th & 1 at NCSU 27. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.93 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:18NCSUCJ Bailey 10 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–41
- Q4 11:48MIAMalachi Toney 15 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Bert Auburn Kick)0–41
- Q3 3:51MIACarter Davis 38 Yd Field Goal 0–34
- Q3 9:55MIAElija Lofton 29 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)0–31
- Q2 0:33MIAMalachi Toney 14 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)0–24
- Q2 11:16MIACharMar Brown 1 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)0–17
- Q1 3:36MIAJakobe Thomas 60 Yd Interception Return (Carter Davis Kick)0–10
- Q1 7:13MIACarter Davis 31 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIA Elo 1865, NCSU Elo 1498 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MIA -17.1 (87% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMiami leads 12–6–1 · 42% have been one-possession games
| NCSU | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| +7.0 (#48) | CORE overall | +31.1 (#6) |
| +6 / -1 | offense / defense | +14 / -18 |
| 2.46 | points / drive | 2.85 |
| 2.59 | allowed / drive | 1.31 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →