NC State
5-4·ACC· Elo 1498
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCSU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| MIA | 10 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 41 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MIA Elo 1865, NCSU Elo 1498) plus home-field advantage. That projects MIA -17.1 (90% to win), essentially in line with the market.
MIA up 34 entering the 4th quarter. Across 345 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
NC State 7, Miami 41.
Yes — the model's pick (MIA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MIA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(14:34) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete deep left to #3 J.Moore caught at NCS43, for 32 yards to the NCS43 (#7 B.Nelson, II), 1ST DOWN. #3 J.Moore injured on the play
(09:54) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete deep left to #0 K.Marion caught at NCS19, for 35 yards to the NCS18 (#21 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWN
(02:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey rush left for 10 yards gain to the UM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:18 PENALTY UM Holding declined #94 K.Vinesett kick attempt good (H: #98 C.Noonkester, LS: #95 J.Mann)
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