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Murray State vs. Jacksonville State: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Sep 20, 11:00 PM
AmFirst Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MURR | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| JXST | 7 | 17 | 14 | 7 | 45 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelMURR 29% · JXST 71%
Market consensusMURR 2% · JXST 98%
Pick: JXST · 27 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
Advanced stats unavailable for this matchup.
Drive-by-drive
MURR 1/13 scoring drives← own end zone →JXST 8/13 scoring drives
JXSTPUNT8 pl, 38 yds· own 16Q1
MURRPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 7Q1
JXSTPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 42Q1
MURRPUNT3 pl, 20 yds· own 7Q1
JXSTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 11Q1
MURRFG7 pl, 29 yds· own 46Q1
JXSTTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
MURRPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q1
JXSTFG12 pl, 63 yds· own 27Q2
MURRDOWNS11 pl, 45 yds· own 24Q2
JXSTTD10 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q2
MURRINT3 pl, 33 yds· own 20Q2
JXSTTD4 pl, 43 yds· opp 43Q2
MURREND1 pl, -2 yds· own 15Q2
MURRINT12 pl, 78 yds· own 19Q3
JXSTTD1 pl, -5 yds· own 5Q3
JXSTTD9 pl, 84 yds· own 16Q3
MURRPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q3
JXSTTD10 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q3
MURRDOWNS8 pl, 30 yds· own 25Q3
JXSTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 45Q4
MURRPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 8Q4
JXSTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 33Q4
MURRPUNT6 pl, 12 yds· own 18Q4
JXSTTD7 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q4
MURREND3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
JXST up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
JXST went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Murray State vs. Jacksonville State?
Murray State 10, Jacksonville State 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JXST) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had JXST pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.