Murray State vs. Jacksonville State: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Murray State0-1

0010

Jacksonville State1-2

▸0045

Final

AmFirst Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
MURR	3	0	7	0	10
JXST	7	17	14	7	45

MURRTeam statsJXST

233Total yards531

141Pass202

92Rush329

16First downs29

5-163rd down7-14

2Turnovers1

29:28Possession30:32

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:15JXSTCaden Creel 13 Yd Run (Conor Donaghy Kick)10–45
• Q3 0:06JXSTKhristian Lando 5 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)10–38
• Q3 6:08JXSTCam Cook 11 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)10–31
• Q3 9:46MURRConlee Crossno 0 Yd Fumble Return (Jack Tannehill Kick)10–24
• Q2 0:13JXSTGavin Wimsatt 28 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)3–24
• Q2 1:25JXSTCam Cook 4 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)3–17
• Q2 11:02JXSTGarrison Rippa 27 Yd Field Goal 3–10
• Q1 1:32JXSTBrock Rechsteiner 17 Yd pass from Gavin Wimsatt (Garrison Rippa Kick)3–7
• Q1 3:54MURRJack Tannehill 43 Yd Field Goal 3–0

How the model called it

Market line

JXST −35.5

Against the number

MURR covered

line JXST −35.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MURR aheadJXST ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = MURR ahead, below = JXST ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

JXST −35.5

Closing total

60.5

Model line

—

Actual result

MURR 10 – 45 JXST

Leaders

Murray State

• PassJim Ogle 17/27, 130 YDS, 2 INT
• RushJawaun Northington 12 CAR, 44 YDS
• RecLucas Desjardins 2 REC, 33 YDS

Jacksonville State

• PassGavin Wimsatt 17/31, 188 YDS, 1 TD
• RushCam Cook 22 CAR, 147 YDS, 2 TD
• RecBrock Rechsteiner 5 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

24.4sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

144

Points / snap

0.38

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

JXST up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

JXST went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WVillanova vs Lehigh38-10WOhio State vs Youngstown State35-7WCampbell vs The Citadel56-7WGeorgia State vs UConn35-14WDuke vs Lafayette42-7

Fourth downs

18 calls

MURR gave up 1.5 points to the model on fourth down.MURR 8/10 · JXST 5/7 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Murray State vs. Jacksonville State?

Murray State 10, Jacksonville State 45.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (JXST) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MURR

JXST

34%

Success rate

57%

-0.16

EPA / pass

0.17

-0.16

EPA / rush

0.61

34%

Early-down success

59%

39%

Pass success

44%

29%

Rush success

67%

8%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

18%

19%

Stuffed rush rate

13%

52%

Pass rate

43%

5.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.1

MURR

5.6 yards to go on 3rd down

64 scrimmage snaps

JXST

5.1 yards to go on 3rd down

80 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MURR		JXST
233	Total yards	531
141	Passing yards	202
92	Rushing yards	329
16	First downs	29
5-16	3rd down	7-14
0-2	4th down	1-1
21/33	Comp/Att	19/34
4.3	Yards per pass	5.9
2.6	Yards per rush	7.3
2	Turnovers	1
8-45	Penalties	8-99
29:28	Possession	30:32

Fourth downs

18 calls

MURR

8/10 with the model

−1.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

JXST

5/7 with the model

−0.7 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 7:07 MURR punt on 4th & 1 at MURR 16. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.77 points.

Every call, priced (18)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MURR 1/13 scoring drives← own end zone →JXST 8/13 scoring drives

JXSTPUNT8 pl, 38 yds· own 16Q1

MURRPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 7Q1

JXSTPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 42Q1

MURRPUNT3 pl, 20 yds· own 7Q1

JXSTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 11Q1

MURRFG7 pl, 29 yds· own 46Q1

JXSTTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

MURRPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q1

JXSTFG12 pl, 63 yds· own 27Q2

MURRDOWNS11 pl, 45 yds· own 24Q2

JXSTTD10 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q2

MURRINT3 pl, 33 yds· own 20Q2

JXSTTD4 pl, 43 yds· opp 43Q2

MURREND1 pl, -2 yds· own 15Q2

MURRINT12 pl, 78 yds· own 19Q3

JXSTTD1 pl, -5 yds· own 5Q3

JXSTTD9 pl, 84 yds· own 16Q3

MURRPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q3

JXSTTD10 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q3

MURRDOWNS8 pl, 30 yds· own 25Q3

JXSTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 45Q4

MURRPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 8Q4

JXSTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 33Q4

MURRPUNT6 pl, 12 yds· own 18Q4

JXSTTD7 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q4

MURREND3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:15JXSTCaden Creel 13 Yd Run (Conor Donaghy Kick)10–45
• Q3 0:06JXSTKhristian Lando 5 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)10–38
• Q3 6:08JXSTCam Cook 11 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)10–31
• Q3 9:46MURRConlee Crossno 0 Yd Fumble Return (Jack Tannehill Kick)10–24
• Q2 0:13JXSTGavin Wimsatt 28 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)3–24
• Q2 1:25JXSTCam Cook 4 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)3–17
• Q2 11:02JXSTGarrison Rippa 27 Yd Field Goal 3–10
• Q1 1:32JXSTBrock Rechsteiner 17 Yd pass from Gavin Wimsatt (Garrison Rippa Kick)3–7
• Q1 3:54MURRJack Tannehill 43 Yd Field Goal 3–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →