Missouri vs. Oklahoma: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MIZTeam statsOU
- Q3 11:36OUTate Sandell 45 Yd Field Goal 6–17
- Q2 0:17MIZOliver Robbins 21 Yd Field Goal 6–14
- Q2 2:22OUJaVonnie Gibson 8 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)3–14
- Q2 6:45OUIsaiah Sategna III 87 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)3–7
- Q1 6:37MIZRobert Meyer 39 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MIZ lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassBeau Pribula 20/36, 231 YDS, 2 INT
- RushAhmad Hardy 17 CAR, 57 YDS
- RecKevin Coleman Jr. 7 REC, 115 YDS
- PassJohn Mateer 14/30, 173 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJohn Mateer 18 CAR, 60 YDS
- RecIsaiah Sategna III 3 REC, 109 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOU up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 14:51MIZ +10%
Shotgun #9 B.Pribula pass complete short right to #3 K.Coleman Jr. caught at MU20, for 3 yards to the MU28 (#22 P.Bowen; #5 K.Daniels)
- Q4 12:42OU +8%
Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush middle for 10 yards gain to the MU47 (#15 S.Banner), 1ST DOWN
- Q2 0:17MIZ +7%
#48 O.Robbins field goal attempt from 21 yards GOOD
- Q3 11:36OU +6%
#29 T.Sandell field goal attempt from 45 yards GOOD
- Q4 14:15OU +6%
#43 G.Miller punt 57 yards to the MU00, Touchback
FAQ
What was the final score of Missouri vs. Oklahoma?
Missouri 6, Oklahoma 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OU) was correct.
| MIZ | OU | |
|---|---|---|
| 301 | Total yards | 276 |
| 231 | Passing yards | 173 |
| 70 | Rushing yards | 103 |
| 19 | First downs | 14 |
| 3-15 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 20/36 | Comp/Att | 14/30 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 5.8 |
| 2.0 | Yards per rush | 3.2 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-51 | Penalties | 7-80 |
| 32:48 | Possession | 27:12 |
Costliest call
Q3 5:59 OU punt on 4th & 2 at OU 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.88 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 11:36OUTate Sandell 45 Yd Field Goal 6–17
- Q2 0:17MIZOliver Robbins 21 Yd Field Goal 6–14
- Q2 2:22OUJaVonnie Gibson 8 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)3–14
- Q2 6:45OUIsaiah Sategna III 87 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)3–7
- Q1 6:37MIZRobert Meyer 39 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OU Elo 1807, MIZ Elo 1765 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OU -4.1 (62% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOklahoma leads 68–25–5 · 33% have been one-possession games
| MIZ | OU | |
|---|---|---|
| +20.9 (#12) | CORE overall | +17.8 (#21) |
| +5 / -15 | offense / defense | -2 / -19 |
| 2.45 | points / drive | 1.93 |
| 1.57 | allowed / drive | 1.22 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -7 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →