| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIZ | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| OU | 0 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (OU Elo 1807, MIZ Elo 1765) plus home-field advantage. That projects OU -4.1 (62% to win), essentially in line with the market.
OU up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Missouri 6, Oklahoma 17.
Yes — the model's pick (OU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had OU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(06:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short middle to #5 I.Sategna III caught at OU22, for 87 yards to the MU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:45, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Sandell kick attempt good (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #49 B.Anderson)
(05:45) Shotgun #9 B.Pribula pass incomplete deep left to #3 K.Coleman Jr. thrown to OU00, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
(14:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Pribula pass incomplete short right to #86 J.Harris thrown to MU47 PENALTY OU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#34 A.Adebawore) 15 yards from MU48 to OU37, 1ST DOWN
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