Missouri State vs. New Mexico State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MOSTTeam statsNMSU
- OT 0:00MOSTRonnel Johnson 7 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)24–17
- Q4 1:49NMSUDonovan Faupel 11 Yd pass from Logan Fife (Ryan Hawk Kick)17–17
- Q4 5:23NMSURyan Hawk 25 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q3 4:28MOSTYousef Obeid 32 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q3 10:45MOSTRamone Green Jr. 18 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)14–7
- Q2 11:40NMSUIsaiah Rudison 4 Yd Run (Ryan Hawk Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:45MOSTJeron Askren 9 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJacob Clark 28/44, 283 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushShomari Lawrence 21 CAR, 97 YDS
- RecRonnel Johnson 6 REC, 99 YDS, 1 TD
- PassLogan Fife 22/34, 207 YDS, 1 TD, 4 INT
- RushKadarius Calloway 10 CAR, 50 YDS
- RecDonovan Faupel 10 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMOST up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:03MOST +69%
#36 Y.Obeid field goal attempt from 50 yards NO GOOD
- Q4 1:49NMSU +48%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 L.Fife pass complete short left to #5 D.Faupel caught at MOST00, for 11 yards to the MOST00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- OT 0:00MOST +32%
Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short left to #9 R.Johnson caught at NMSU00, for 7 yards to the NMSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 10:45MOST +29%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short left to #22 R.Green Jr. caught at NMSU00, for 18 yards to the NMSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under…
- Q4 1:42NMSU +28%
Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short middle to #15 T.Gardner caught at MOST37, for 9 yards to the MOST44 (#2 A.Hale)
- Q2 1:22NMSU +27%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 L.Fife pass complete short right to #1 K.Calloway caught at NMSU45, for 13 yards to the MOST39 (#9 D.Dixson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Missouri State vs. New Mexico State?
Missouri State 24, New Mexico State 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MOST) was correct.
| MOST | NMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 409 | Total yards | 289 |
| 283 | Passing yards | 207 |
| 126 | Rushing yards | 82 |
| 22 | First downs | 20 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 3-10 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 28/44 | Comp/Att | 22/34 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 6.1 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 12-110 | Penalties | 7-61 |
| 32:35 | Possession | 27:25 |
Costliest call
Q4 0:03 MOST field goal on 4th & 2 at NMSU 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.69 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00MOSTRonnel Johnson 7 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)24–17
- Q4 1:49NMSUDonovan Faupel 11 Yd pass from Logan Fife (Ryan Hawk Kick)17–17
- Q4 5:23NMSURyan Hawk 25 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q3 4:28MOSTYousef Obeid 32 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q3 10:45MOSTRamone Green Jr. 18 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)14–7
- Q2 11:40NMSUIsaiah Rudison 4 Yd Run (Ryan Hawk Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:45MOSTJeron Askren 9 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NMSU Elo 1231, MOST Elo 1329 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NMSU +1.5 (47% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MOST | NMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.3 (#92) | CORE overall | -17.5 (#120) |
| -0 / +9 | offense / defense | -12 / +6 |
| 2.26 | points / drive | 1.66 |
| 2.55 | allowed / drive | 2.21 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +6 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →