Aggie Memorial StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOST | 7 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 24 |
| NMSU | 0 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 17 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NMSU 1231
MOST 1329
Projected spread
NMSU +1.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
MOST
54% to win
Market spread
NMSU +2.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
46%
NMSU · market 45%
Our model blends Elo ratings (NMSU Elo 1231, MOST Elo 1329) plus home-field advantage. That projects NMSU +1.5 (46% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
NMSU (top)MOST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NMSU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- NMSU rush offense (-0.09 PPA) vs. MOST rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge MOST.
- NMSU pass offense (0.17 PPA) vs. MOST pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge MOST.
- MOST pass offense (0.34 PPA) vs. NMSU pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge MOST.
Drive-by-drive
MOST 4/14 scoring drives← own end zone →NMSU 3/13 scoring drives
MOSTTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
NMSUINT7 pl, 48 yds· own 25Q1
MOSTINT2 pl, 0 yds· opp 21Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
MOST up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
MOST went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Missouri State vs. New Mexico State?
Missouri State 24, New Mexico State 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MOST) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had MOST pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.