Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MOSTTeam statsMTSU
- Q4 4:19MOSTYousef Obeid 29 Yd Field Goal 22–20
- Q4 9:12MTSUCam'ron Lacy 10 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)19–20
- Q3 12:33MOSTYousef Obeid 25 Yd Field Goal 19–13
- Q2 0:00MTSUJacob Hathaway 40 Yd Field Goal 16–13
- Q2 1:05MOSTYousef Obeid 39 Yd Field Goal 16–10
- Q2 5:29MOSTRonnel Johnson 20 Yd pass from Deuce Bailey (Yousef Obeid Kick)13–10
- Q2 10:06MTSUCam'ron Lacy 52 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)6–10
- Q2 11:27MOSTDeuce Bailey 5 Yd Run (Yousef Obeid PAT failed)6–3
- Q1 10:42MTSUJacob Hathaway 45 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MOST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MTSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.7 vs 3rd & 5.6
- MOST lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassDeuce Bailey 16/31, 278 YDS, 1 TD
- RushShomari Lawrence 11 CAR, 63 YDS
- RecRamone Green Jr. 1 REC, 76 YDS
- PassNicholas Vattiato 30/42, 267 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJekail Middlebrook 17 CAR, 93 YDS
- RecCam'ron Lacy 6 REC, 114 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMOST up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:56MOST +32%
Deuce Bailey run for a loss of 4 yards to the MOST 27
- Q4 1:03MTSU +24%
Jacob Hathaway 50 yd FG MISSED
- Q4 4:16MOST +23%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for 19 yds to the MTSU 44 for a 1ST down
- Q2 10:06MTSU +21%
Cam'ron Lacy 52 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)
- Q2 11:27MOST +17%
Deuce Bailey 5 Yd Run (Yousef Obeid PAT failed)
- Q3 12:33MOST +12%
Yousef Obeid 25 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee?
Missouri State 22, Middle Tennessee 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MOST) was correct.
| MOST | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 348 | Total yards | 353 |
| 278 | Passing yards | 267 |
| 70 | Rushing yards | 86 |
| 19 | First downs | 22 |
| 4-15 | 3rd down | 7-16 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 16/31 | Comp/Att | 30/43 |
| 9.0 | Yards per pass | 6.2 |
| 2.0 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-41 | Penalties | 6-54 |
| 30:42 | Possession | 29:18 |
Costliest call
Q1 6:53 MTSU punt on 4th & 2 at MTSU 30. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.48 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:19MOSTYousef Obeid 29 Yd Field Goal 22–20
- Q4 9:12MTSUCam'ron Lacy 10 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)19–20
- Q3 12:33MOSTYousef Obeid 25 Yd Field Goal 19–13
- Q2 0:00MTSUJacob Hathaway 40 Yd Field Goal 16–13
- Q2 1:05MOSTYousef Obeid 39 Yd Field Goal 16–10
- Q2 5:29MOSTRonnel Johnson 20 Yd pass from Deuce Bailey (Yousef Obeid Kick)13–10
- Q2 10:06MTSUCam'ron Lacy 52 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)6–10
- Q2 11:27MOSTDeuce Bailey 5 Yd Run (Yousef Obeid PAT failed)6–3
- Q1 10:42MTSUJacob Hathaway 45 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MTSU Elo 1175, MOST Elo 1335 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MTSU +4 (41% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MOST | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.3 (#92) | CORE overall | -15.9 (#113) |
| -0 / +9 | offense / defense | -5 / +11 |
| 2.26 | points / drive | 1.93 |
| 2.55 | allowed / drive | 2.66 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +6 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →