Fri, Dec 19, 2:00 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOST | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 28 |
| ARST | 14 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 34 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ARST Elo 1301, MOST Elo 1344) on a neutral field. That projects ARST +1.7 (45% to win) — 3.2 points of value on MOST versus the market line of -1.5.
ARST up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Missouri State 28, Arkansas State 34.
No — the model picked MOST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had MOST pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(03:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete deep left to #7 C.Rucker caught at MOST31, for 71 yards to the MOST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:51, 1ST DOWN #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #29 J.Waller, LS: #41 D.Nicolson)
(05:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete deep middle to #1 D.Luke caught at ASU20, for 47 yards to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:26, 1ST DOWN #12 J.Clark pass attempt failed
(10:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete deep middle to #0 J.Robinson caught at ASU32, for 28 yards to the ASU29 (#8 B.Barnes), 1ST DOWN
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