Ford Center At The StarNeutral siteClosing line: ARST -1.5 · ARST covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOST | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 28 |
| ARST | 14 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 34 |
Team stats
MOSTthis game · better side highlightedARST
396
Total yards
359349
Passing yards
28847
Rushing yards
7123
First downs
168-15 · 53%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ARST 1301
MOST 1344
Projected spread
ARST +1.7
neutral site
Model pick
MOST
55% to win
Market spread
ARST -1.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
MOST
3.2 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
45%
ARST · market 54%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ARST Elo 1301, MOST Elo 1344) on a neutral field. That projects ARST +1.7 (45% to win) — 3.2 points of value on MOST versus the market line of -1.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ARST (top)MOST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ARST 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- ARST rush offense (-0.01 PPA) vs. MOST rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge MOST.
- ARST pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. MOST pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge MOST.
- MOST rush offense (0.03 PPA) vs. ARST rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge ARST.
Drive-by-drive
MOST 4/12 scoring drives← own end zone →ARST 6/14 scoring drives
MOSTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 12Q1
ARSTTD5 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q1
MOSTPUNT11 pl, 26 yds· own 26Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ARST up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
ARST went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Missouri State vs. Arkansas State?
Missouri State 28, Arkansas State 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MOST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had MOST pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.