Missouri State vs. Arkansas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MOSTTeam statsARST
- Q4 1:54MOSTJmariyae Robinson 16 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)28–34
- Q4 5:26MOSTDash Luke 47 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–34
- Q4 12:44ARSTClune Van Andel 32 Yd Field Goal 15–34
- Q4 14:52MOSTRamone Green Jr. 15 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Jacob Clark Pass to Jeron Askren for Two-Point Conversion)15–31
- Q3 10:22ARSTDevin Spencer 25 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)7–31
- Q2 6:14ARSTChauncy Cobb 4 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)7–24
- Q2 12:40ARSTClune Van Andel 54 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q1 0:17MOSTDash Luke 39 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:51ARSTCorey Rucker 71 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:59ARSTJaylen Bonelli 7 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJacob Clark 25/35, 349 YDS, 4 TD
- RushShomari Lawrence 16 CAR, 57 YDS
- RecDash Luke 7 REC, 169 YDS, 2 TD
- PassJaylen Raynor 17/31, 288 YDS, 3 TD
- RushKenyon Clay 11 CAR, 53 YDS
- RecCorey Rucker 6 REC, 166 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Missouri State vs. Arkansas State?
Missouri State 28, Arkansas State 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MOST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MOST | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 396 | Total yards | 359 |
| 349 | Passing yards | 288 |
| 47 | Rushing yards | 71 |
| 23 | First downs | 16 |
| 8-15 | 3rd down | 2-11 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 25/35 | Comp/Att | 17/31 |
| 10.0 | Yards per pass | 9.3 |
| 1.3 | Yards per rush | 2.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 14-115 | Penalties | 10-110 |
| 39:07 | Possession | 20:53 |
- Q4 1:54MOSTJmariyae Robinson 16 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)28–34
- Q4 5:26MOSTDash Luke 47 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–34
- Q4 12:44ARSTClune Van Andel 32 Yd Field Goal 15–34
- Q4 14:52MOSTRamone Green Jr. 15 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Jacob Clark Pass to Jeron Askren for Two-Point Conversion)15–31
- Q3 10:22ARSTDevin Spencer 25 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)7–31
- Q2 6:14ARSTChauncy Cobb 4 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)7–24
- Q2 12:40ARSTClune Van Andel 54 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q1 0:17MOSTDash Luke 39 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:51ARSTCorey Rucker 71 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:59ARSTJaylen Bonelli 7 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARST Elo 1301, MOST Elo 1344 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects ARST +1.7 (47% to win) — 3.2 points clear of MOST's market line of -1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MOST | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.3 (#92) | CORE overall | -16.8 (#118) |
| -0 / +9 | offense / defense | -11 / +6 |
| 2.26 | points / drive | 1.85 |
| 2.55 | allowed / drive | 2.35 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +6 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →