Minnesota vs. Northwestern: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MINNTeam statsNU
- Q4 0:53NUJack Olsen 33 Yd Field Goal 35–38
- Q4 8:20MINNLe'Meke Brockington 8 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)35–35
- Q4 10:20NUCaleb Komolafe 2 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Jack Olsen Kick)28–35
- Q3 0:28NUJoseph Himon II 20 Yd Run (Jack Olsen Kick)28–28
- Q3 7:01NUGriffin Wilde 4 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Henry Helms Pass to Robby Preckel for Two-Point Conversion)28–21
- Q3 12:43MINNJavon Tracy 28 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)28–13
- Q2 0:12MINNJavon Tracy 24 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)21–13
- Q2 3:09MINNJavon Tracy 5 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)14–13
- Q2 7:38NUJack Olsen 35 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 13:35MINND. Taylor run for 1 yd, for a TD (B. Denaburg KICK)7–10
- Q1 0:51NUJack Olsen 34 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 12:05NUCaleb Komolafe 46 Yd Run (Jack Olsen Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassDrake Lindsey 20/30, 264 YDS, 4 TD
- RushDarius Taylor 10 CAR, 43 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJavon Tracy 4 REC, 87 YDS, 3 TD
- PassPreston Stone 25/30, 305 YDS, 2 TD
- RushCaleb Komolafe 22 CAR, 129 YDS, 1 TD
- RecHayden Eligon II 7 REC, 127 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 2:55NU +19%
Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NU 29 (#49 M.Kingsbury)
- Q1 12:05NU +17%
Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 46 yards gain to the MIN00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 7:01NU +6%
Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short left to #17 G.Wilde caught at MIN00, for 4 yards to the MIN00 TOUCHDOWN #94 H.Helms pass attempt Successful #41 R.Preckel pass a…
FAQ
What was the final score of Minnesota vs. Northwestern?
Minnesota 35, Northwestern 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NU) was correct.
| MINN | NU | |
|---|---|---|
| 323 | Total yards | 525 |
| 264 | Passing yards | 305 |
| 59 | Rushing yards | 220 |
| 15 | First downs | 25 |
| 2-8 | 3rd down | 8-14 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 20/31 | Comp/Att | 25/31 |
| 8.5 | Yards per pass | 9.8 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-31 | Penalties | 10-76 |
| 19:12 | Possession | 40:48 |
Costliest call
Q3 12:52 MINN punt on 4th & 1 at MINN 38. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.97 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:53NUJack Olsen 33 Yd Field Goal 35–38
- Q4 8:20MINNLe'Meke Brockington 8 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)35–35
- Q4 10:20NUCaleb Komolafe 2 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Jack Olsen Kick)28–35
- Q3 0:28NUJoseph Himon II 20 Yd Run (Jack Olsen Kick)28–28
- Q3 7:01NUGriffin Wilde 4 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Henry Helms Pass to Robby Preckel for Two-Point Conversion)28–21
- Q3 12:43MINNJavon Tracy 28 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)28–13
- Q2 0:12MINNJavon Tracy 24 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)21–13
- Q2 3:09MINNJavon Tracy 5 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)14–13
- Q2 7:38NUJack Olsen 35 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 13:35MINND. Taylor run for 1 yd, for a TD (B. Denaburg KICK)7–10
- Q1 0:51NUJack Olsen 34 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 12:05NUCaleb Komolafe 46 Yd Run (Jack Olsen Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NU Elo 1526, MINN Elo 1496 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects NU -1.2 (54% to win) — 2.8 points clear of MINN's market line of -4. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMinnesota leads 56–38–5 · Northwestern has won 2 straight · 47% have been one-possession games
| MINN | NU | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.1 (#96) | CORE overall | -1.8 (#67) |
| -7 / +3 | offense / defense | -0 / +1 |
| 1.72 | points / drive | 2.35 |
| 2.38 | allowed / drive | 2.19 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →