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Minnesota vs. Northwestern: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Nov 22, 5:00 PM
Wrigley FieldNeutral siteConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MINN | 0 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 35 |
| NU | 10 | 3 | 15 | 10 | 38 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NU 1526
MINN 1496
Projected spread
NU -1.2
neutral site
Model pick
NU
54% to win
Market spread
NU -4
sportsbook line
Model edge
MINN
2.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
54%
NU · market 63%
Our model blends Elo ratings (NU Elo 1526, MINN Elo 1496) on a neutral field. That projects NU -1.2 (54% to win) — 2.8 points of value on MINN versus the market line of -4.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
NU (top)MINN (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NU 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
MINN2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedNU
Offense
0.13
PPA / play
0.1540%
Success rate
43%1.20
Explosiveness
1.183.79
Pts / opportunity
3.2173%
Power success
76%Defense
0.20
PPA allowed / play
0.1745%
Success rate allowed
45%1.27
Explosiveness allowed
1.1518%
Havoc rate
15%20%
Stuff rate
15%Key matchups · Pro
- MINN rush offense (0.02 PPA) vs. NU rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge NU.
- NU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. MINN pass defense (0.25 allowed) — edge MINN.
- MINN pass offense (0.22 PPA) vs. NU pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge NU.
Drive-by-drive
MINN 5/10 scoring drives← own end zone →NU 7/9 scoring drives
NUTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
MINNPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 23Q1
NUFG15 pl, 51 yds· own 33Q1
MINNTD4 pl, 5 yds· opp 5Q1
NUFG10 pl, 58 yds· own 25Q2
MINNTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
NUPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 26Q2
MINNTD8 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q2
NUEND1 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q2
MINNFUM3 pl, 9 yds· own 29Q3
MINNTD1 pl, 28 yds· opp 28Q3
NUTD9 pl, 79 yds· own 14Q3
MINNMISS6 pl, 35 yds· own 35Q3
NUTD7 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q3
MINNPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 22Q3
NUTD8 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q4
MINNTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
NUFG14 pl, 59 yds· own 25Q4
MINNMISS5 pl, 34 yds· own 44Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
50%
NU win rate
How often the home team won from here
FAQ
What was the final score of Minnesota vs. Northwestern?
Minnesota 35, Northwestern 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had NU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.