Michigan State vs. USC: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MSUTeam statsUSC
- Q4 2:39MSUOmari Kelly 75 Yd pass from Aidan Chiles (Martin Connington Kick)31–45
- Q4 2:57USCJayden Maiava 1 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)24–45
- Q4 8:20USCMakai Lemon 4 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)24–38
- Q3 0:40MSUJack Velling 1 Yd pass from Aidan Chiles (Martin Connington Kick)24–31
- Q3 5:58MSUAidan Chiles 4 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)17–31
- Q3 11:22USCWalker Lyons 10 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)10–31
- Q2 0:37USCTanook Hines 7 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)10–24
- Q2 4:26MSUMartin Connington 29 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 11:36USCMakai Lemon 40 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)7–17
- Q1 2:38USCJayden Maiava 15 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)7–10
- Q1 5:27MSUChrishon McCray 42 Yd pass from Aidan Chiles (Martin Connington Kick)7–3
- Q1 9:03USCRyon Sayeri 25 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassAidan Chiles 12/21, 212 YDS, 3 TD
- RushMakhi Frazier 14 CAR, 61 YDS
- RecOmari Kelly 6 REC, 133 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJayden Maiava 20/26, 234 YDS, 3 TD
- RushWaymond Jordan 18 CAR, 157 YDS
- RecMakai Lemon 8 REC, 127 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSC up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 0:40MSU +7%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 1 yd for a TD (Martin Connington KICK)
- Q4 8:25USC +5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Maiava,Jayden pass incomplete short right to Richardson,Jaden thrown to MSU06 PENALTY MSU Face Mask (Willie,Ade) 5 yards from MSU09 to MSU04, 1ST DOW…
FAQ
What was the final score of Michigan State vs. USC?
Michigan State 31, USC 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USC) was correct.
| MSU | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| 337 | Total yards | 523 |
| 225 | Passing yards | 234 |
| 112 | Rushing yards | 289 |
| 20 | First downs | 27 |
| 5-11 | 3rd down | 8-12 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 13/23 | Comp/Att | 20/26 |
| 9.8 | Yards per pass | 9.0 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 7.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-53 | Penalties | 11-82 |
| 28:54 | Possession | 31:06 |
Costliest call
Q4 6:30 MSU go for it on 4th & 7 at MSU 28. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.67 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:39MSUOmari Kelly 75 Yd pass from Aidan Chiles (Martin Connington Kick)31–45
- Q4 2:57USCJayden Maiava 1 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)24–45
- Q4 8:20USCMakai Lemon 4 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)24–38
- Q3 0:40MSUJack Velling 1 Yd pass from Aidan Chiles (Martin Connington Kick)24–31
- Q3 5:58MSUAidan Chiles 4 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)17–31
- Q3 11:22USCWalker Lyons 10 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)10–31
- Q2 0:37USCTanook Hines 7 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)10–24
- Q2 4:26MSUMartin Connington 29 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 11:36USCMakai Lemon 40 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)7–17
- Q1 2:38USCJayden Maiava 15 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)7–10
- Q1 5:27MSUChrishon McCray 42 Yd pass from Aidan Chiles (Martin Connington Kick)7–3
- Q1 9:03USCRyon Sayeri 25 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USC Elo 1878, MSU Elo 1405 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USC -21.3 (91% to win) — 2.8 points clear of USC's market line of -18.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUSC leads 5–4 · 44% have been one-possession games
| MSU | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.6 (#91) | CORE overall | +22.5 (#10) |
| -4 / +4 | offense / defense | +18 / -4 |
| 1.95 | points / drive | 3.53 |
| 2.64 | allowed / drive | 2.14 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 14% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →