Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)Conference gameClosing line: NEB -13 · MSU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSU | 0 | 7 | 14 | 6 | 27 |
| NEB | 14 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 38 |
Team stats
MSUthis game · better side highlightedNEB
242
Total yards
282156
Passing yards
19486
Rushing yards
8817
First downs
152-14 · 14%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NEB 1703
MSU 1414
Projected spread
NEB -14
incl. home edge
Model pick
NEB
85% to win
Market spread
NEB -13
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
85%
NEB · market 79%
Our model blends Elo ratings (NEB Elo 1703, MSU Elo 1414) plus home-field advantage. That projects NEB -14 (85% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
NEB (top)MSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NEB 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- MSU rush offense (0.06 PPA) vs. NEB rush defense (0.25 allowed) — edge NEB.
- NEB pass offense (0.22 PPA) vs. MSU pass defense (0.32 allowed) — edge MSU.
- MSU pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. NEB pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge MSU.
Drive-by-drive
MSU 5/13 scoring drives← own end zone →NEB 5/13 scoring drives
MSUPUNT3 pl, -11 yds· own 25Q1
NEBTD9 pl, 48 yds· opp 48Q1
MSUTD3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
50%
NEB win rate
How often the home team won from here
FAQ
What was the final score of Michigan State vs. Nebraska?
Michigan State 27, Nebraska 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NEB) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had NEB pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.