Michigan State vs. Nebraska: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MSUTeam statsNEB
- Q4 2:01MSUAlessio Milivojevic 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)27–38
- Q4 4:27NEBEmmett Johnson 11 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)21–38
- Q4 6:45NEBNyziah Hunter 59 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)21–31
- Q4 13:32NEBKyle Cunanan 27 Yd Field Goal 21–24
- Q3 1:11NEBEmmett Johnson 23 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)21–21
- Q3 2:37MSUAidan Chiles 4 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)21–14
- Q3 6:08MSUAidan Chiles 16 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)14–14
- Q2 12:52MSUJack Velling 2 Yd pass from Alessio Milivojevic (Martin Connington Kick)7–14
- Q1 7:37NEBCarter Nelson 3 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:09NEBEmmett Johnson 2 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassAidan Chiles 9/23, 85 YDS, 2 INT
- RushMakhi Frazier 18 CAR, 58 YDS
- RecNick Marsh 4 REC, 41 YDS
- PassDylan Raiola 16/24, 194 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushEmmett Johnson 13 CAR, 83 YDS, 3 TD
- RecNyziah Hunter 4 REC, 93 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 6:45NEB +27%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 59 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)
- Q1 15:00MSU +6%
PENALTY MSU False Start (West,Aydan) 5 yards from MSU19 to MSU14. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of Michigan State vs. Nebraska?
Michigan State 27, Nebraska 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NEB) was correct.
| MSU | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| 240 | Total yards | 261 |
| 156 | Passing yards | 194 |
| 84 | Rushing yards | 67 |
| 17 | First downs | 15 |
| 2-14 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 4-5 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 15/30 | Comp/Att | 16/24 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 8.1 |
| 2.2 | Yards per rush | 2.2 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-45 | Penalties | 6-44 |
| 33:21 | Possession | 26:39 |
Costliest call
Q2 10:04 NEB punt on 4th & 2 at NEB 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.75 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:01MSUAlessio Milivojevic 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)27–38
- Q4 4:27NEBEmmett Johnson 11 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)21–38
- Q4 6:45NEBNyziah Hunter 59 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)21–31
- Q4 13:32NEBKyle Cunanan 27 Yd Field Goal 21–24
- Q3 1:11NEBEmmett Johnson 23 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)21–21
- Q3 2:37MSUAidan Chiles 4 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)21–14
- Q3 6:08MSUAidan Chiles 16 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)14–14
- Q2 12:52MSUJack Velling 2 Yd pass from Alessio Milivojevic (Martin Connington Kick)7–14
- Q1 7:37NEBCarter Nelson 3 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:09NEBEmmett Johnson 2 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NEB Elo 1703, MSU Elo 1414 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NEB -14 (82% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNebraska leads 10–4 · 43% have been one-possession games
| MSU | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.6 (#91) | CORE overall | -1.8 (#68) |
| -4 / +4 | offense / defense | +0 / +2 |
| 1.95 | points / drive | 2.52 |
| 2.64 | allowed / drive | 2.50 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →