Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)Conference gameClosing line: IU -26.5 · MSU covered
Sat, Oct 18, 7:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSU | 3 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| IU | 7 | 14 | 14 | 3 | 38 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (IU Elo 2022, MSU Elo 1343) plus home-field advantage. That projects IU -29.6 (99% to win) — 3.1 points of value on IU versus the market line of -26.5.
IU up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Michigan State 13, Indiana 38.
Yes — the model's pick (IU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had IU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 48 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)
Aidan Chiles run for 64 yds to the IU 20 Aidan Chiles fumbled, recovered by MSU for a 1ST down
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Riley Nowakowski for 39 yds to the MSU 24 for a 1ST down
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