Miami vs. SMU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MIATeam statsSMU
- OT 0:00SMUT.J. Harden 1 Yd Run 20–26
- Q4 0:25SMUSam Keltner 38 Yd Field Goal 20–20
- Q4 9:34MIACarter Davis 45 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q3 0:07SMUSam Keltner 43 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q3 9:06MIAAlex Bauman 4 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)17–14
- Q3 12:11SMUKevin Jennings 3 Yd Run (Sam Keltner Kick)10–14
- Q2 0:07MIACarter Davis 22 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 9:22SMUYamir Knight 28 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Sam Keltner Kick)7–7
- Q1 4:16MIAJoshisa Trader 36 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassCarson Beck 26/38, 274 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushMark Fletcher Jr. 16 CAR, 84 YDS
- RecJoshisa Trader 5 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKevin Jennings 29/44, 365 YDS, 1 TD
- RushTJ Harden 8 CAR, 27 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJordan Hudson 11 REC, 136 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:25MIA +75%
Kneel down by #11 C.Beck at MIA24 for loss of 1 yard
- Q4 0:25SMU +67%
#95 S.Keltner field goal attempt from 38 yards GOOD
- OT 0:00SMU +32%
Shotgun #27 T.Harden rush left for 1 yard gain to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN
- OT 0:00SMU +31%
#6 C.Brown rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SMU07 (#29 B.Miyazono; #6 J.M'ba)
- Q4 9:34MIA +30%
#38 C.Davis field goal attempt from 45 yards GOOD
- Q3 9:06MIA +26%
#11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #87 A.Bauman caught at SMU00, for 4 yards to the SMU00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami vs. SMU?
Miami 20, SMU 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MIA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MIA | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 433 | Total yards | 388 |
| 274 | Passing yards | 365 |
| 159 | Rushing yards | 23 |
| 23 | First downs | 20 |
| 7-16 | 3rd down | 3-13 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 26/38 | Comp/Att | 29/45 |
| 7.2 | Yards per pass | 8.1 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 0.9 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 12-96 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 37:42 | Possession | 22:18 |
Costliest call
Q1 12:04 MIA punt on 4th & 2 at MIA 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.88 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00SMUT.J. Harden 1 Yd Run 20–26
- Q4 0:25SMUSam Keltner 38 Yd Field Goal 20–20
- Q4 9:34MIACarter Davis 45 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q3 0:07SMUSam Keltner 43 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q3 9:06MIAAlex Bauman 4 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)17–14
- Q3 12:11SMUKevin Jennings 3 Yd Run (Sam Keltner Kick)10–14
- Q2 0:07MIACarter Davis 22 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 9:22SMUYamir Knight 28 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Sam Keltner Kick)7–7
- Q1 4:16MIAJoshisa Trader 36 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SMU Elo 1727, MIA Elo 1863 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SMU +3 (43% to win) — 5.0 points clear of SMU's market line of +8. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#75 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #48 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #9 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →| MIA | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| +31.1 (#6) | CORE overall | +14.6 (#27) |
| +14 / -18 | offense / defense | +9 / -5 |
| 2.85 | points / drive | 2.63 |
| 1.31 | allowed / drive | 1.64 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →