Miami vs. Florida State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MIATeam statsFSU
- Q4 0:20FSUJake Weinberg 35 Yd Field Goal 28–22
- Q4 3:22FSURandy Pittman Jr. 6 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Tommy Castellanos Pass to Lawayne McCoy for Two-Point Conversion)28–19
- Q4 10:04FSULawayne McCoy 8 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Micahi Danzy Run for Two-Point Conversion)28–11
- Q3 3:53MIACJ Daniels 24 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)28–3
- Q3 9:09MIAMalachi Toney 40 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)21–3
- Q2 11:25MIAMalachi Toney 44 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)14–3
- Q1 0:50MIACJ Daniels 4 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)7–3
- Q1 10:02FSUJake Weinberg 23 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassCarson Beck 20/27, 241 YDS, 4 TD
- RushMark Fletcher Jr. 12 CAR, 40 YDS
- RecMalachi Toney 7 REC, 107 YDS, 2 TD
- PassThomas Castellanos 25/45, 272 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushThomas Castellanos 16 CAR, 57 YDS
- RecDuce Robinson 6 REC, 87 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMIA up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 0:50MIA +17%
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 4 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)
- Q2 11:25MIA +14%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 44 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)
- Q3 9:09MIA +5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 40 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami vs. Florida State?
Miami 28, Florida State 22.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MIA) was correct.
| MIA | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 338 | Total yards | 404 |
| 241 | Passing yards | 272 |
| 97 | Rushing yards | 132 |
| 14 | First downs | 28 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 7-16 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 20/27 | Comp/Att | 25/45 |
| 8.9 | Yards per pass | 6.0 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 13-114 | Penalties | 5-45 |
| 30:26 | Possession | 29:34 |
Costliest call
Q4 6:18 FSU go for it on 4th & 5 at FSU 34. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:20FSUJake Weinberg 35 Yd Field Goal 28–22
- Q4 3:22FSURandy Pittman Jr. 6 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Tommy Castellanos Pass to Lawayne McCoy for Two-Point Conversion)28–19
- Q4 10:04FSULawayne McCoy 8 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Micahi Danzy Run for Two-Point Conversion)28–11
- Q3 3:53MIACJ Daniels 24 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)28–3
- Q3 9:09MIAMalachi Toney 40 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)21–3
- Q2 11:25MIAMalachi Toney 44 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)14–3
- Q1 0:50MIACJ Daniels 4 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)7–3
- Q1 10:02FSUJake Weinberg 23 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FSU Elo 1564, MIA Elo 1852 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FSU +9.1 (28% to win) — 6.1 points clear of MIA's market line of +3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMiami leads 37–33 · Miami has won 2 straight · 50% have been one-possession games
| MIA | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +31.1 (#6) | CORE overall | +14.3 (#29) |
| +14 / -18 | offense / defense | +13 / -1 |
| 2.85 | points / drive | 2.75 |
| 1.31 | allowed / drive | 2.42 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →