| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 7 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 28 |
| FSU | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 22 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (FSU Elo 1564, MIA Elo 1852) plus home-field advantage. That projects FSU +9.1 (25% to win) — 6.1 points of value on MIA versus the market line of +3.
MIA up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Miami 28, Florida State 22.
Yes — the model's pick (MIA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MIA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 40 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)
Tommy Castellanos pass intercepted, touchback. Jakobe Thomas return for no gain
Carson Beck pass complete to Malachi Toney for 44 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)
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