Miami (OH) vs. Ohio: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
M-OHTeam statsOHIO
- Q4 2:15OHIORodney Harris II 49 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (David Dellenbach Kick)20–24
- Q4 9:29M-OHKam Perry 27 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Dom Dzioban Kick)20–17
- Q4 13:15OHIOSieh Bangura 97 Yd Kickoff Return (David Dellenbach Kick)13–17
- Q4 13:29M-OHBraylon Isom 4 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Dom Dzioban Kick)13–10
- Q3 4:37OHIOSieh Bangura 22 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)6–10
- Q3 8:15M-OHDom Dzioban 46 Yd Field Goal 6–3
- Q2 0:07OHIODavid Dellenbach 35 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q2 1:57M-OHDom Dzioban 23 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- OHIO played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and M-OH did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.1 vs 3rd & 4.0
- PassDequan Finn 17/25, 194 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJordan Brunson 15 CAR, 49 YDS
- RecCole Weaver 6 REC, 94 YDS
- PassParker Navarro 16/31, 201 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushSieh Bangura 17 CAR, 102 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRodney Harris II 5 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOHIO up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:15OHIO +54%
Rodney Harris II 49 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (David Dellenbach Kick)
- Q4 9:29M-OH +41%
Kam Perry 27 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Dom Dzioban Kick)
- Q4 13:15OHIO +35%
#38 K.McLaughlin kickoff 62 yards to the Ohio03 #5 S.Bangura return 97 yards to the Miami 00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 13:29M-OH +35%
Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete short middle to #18 B.Isom caught at Ohio00, for 4 yards to the Ohio00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 4:37OHIO +25%
Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass complete short left to #0 K.Reynolds caught at Ohio34, for 0 yards to the Ohio29 (#2 D.Walker)
- Q4 7:18M-OH +21%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 K.Reynolds rush left for 1 yard gain to the Miami 26 (#30 C.Christopher; #20 K.Bannister) PENALTY Miami Holding (#18 B.Isom) 10 yards from Miami 2…
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami (OH) vs. Ohio?
Miami (OH) 20, Ohio 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OHIO) was correct.
| M-OH | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| 303 | Total yards | 338 |
| 194 | Passing yards | 201 |
| 109 | Rushing yards | 137 |
| 16 | First downs | 19 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 6-12 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 17/25 | Comp/Att | 16/31 |
| 7.8 | Yards per pass | 6.5 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-49 | Penalties | 5-41 |
| 32:50 | Possession | 27:10 |
Costliest call
Q1 11:10 M-OH punt on 4th & 4 at OHIO 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.87 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:15OHIORodney Harris II 49 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (David Dellenbach Kick)20–24
- Q4 9:29M-OHKam Perry 27 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Dom Dzioban Kick)20–17
- Q4 13:15OHIOSieh Bangura 97 Yd Kickoff Return (David Dellenbach Kick)13–17
- Q4 13:29M-OHBraylon Isom 4 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Dom Dzioban Kick)13–10
- Q3 4:37OHIOSieh Bangura 22 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)6–10
- Q3 8:15M-OHDom Dzioban 46 Yd Field Goal 6–3
- Q2 0:07OHIODavid Dellenbach 35 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q2 1:57M-OHDom Dzioban 23 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OHIO Elo 1596, M-OH Elo 1459 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OHIO -7.9 (71% to win) — 5.4 points clear of OHIO's market line of -2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMiami (OH) leads 33–30–1 · Ohio has won 2 straight · 41% have been one-possession games
| M-OH | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.0 (#81) | CORE overall | -1.1 (#66) |
| -7 / -1 | offense / defense | +1 / +2 |
| 1.96 | points / drive | 2.50 |
| 1.91 | allowed / drive | 1.96 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →