Memphis
7-1·American Athletic· Elo 1681
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEM | 14 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 38 |
| RICE | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (RICE Elo 1163, MEM Elo 1681) plus home-field advantage. That projects RICE +18.3 (9% to win) — 4.3 points of value on MEM versus the market line of +14.
MEM up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Memphis 38, Rice 14.
Yes — the model's pick (MEM) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MEM pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
End of 2nd quarter.
(11:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass complete short middle to #4 C.Braham Jr. caught at Rice31, for 30 yards to the Rice18 (#5 J.Harper), 1ST DOWN
(09:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass complete short left to #8 B.Dorsey caught at MEM21, for 49 yards to the Rice25 (#14 E.Dotson), 1ST DOWN
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