Memphis vs. Rice: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MEMTeam statsRICE
- Q4 3:28RICETyvonn Byars 1 Yd Run (Chase Allen Kick)38–14
- Q3 0:49MEMGreg Desrosiers Jr. 2 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)38–7
- Q2 0:00MEMGianni Spetic 37 Yd Field Goal 31–7
- Q2 2:03RICEAaron Turner 12 Yd pass from Chase Jenkins (Enock Gota Kick)28–7
- Q2 7:54MEMFrank Peasant 1 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)28–0
- Q2 12:25MEMFrank Peasant 1 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)21–0
- Q1 2:34MEMFrank Peasant 2 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)14–0
- Q1 10:35MEMBrendon Lewis 18 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassBrendon Lewis 18/22, 225 YDS
- RushBrendon Lewis 12 CAR, 87 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCortez Braham Jr. 3 REC, 66 YDS
- PassChase Jenkins 11/16, 100 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushChase Jenkins 15 CAR, 34 YDS
- RecTyvonn Byars 1 REC, 43 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMEM up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Memphis vs. Rice?
Memphis 38, Rice 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MEM) was correct.
| MEM | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| 355 | Total yards | 212 |
| 225 | Passing yards | 100 |
| 130 | Rushing yards | 112 |
| 19 | First downs | 13 |
| 4-10 | 3rd down | 3-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 18/23 | Comp/Att | 11/17 |
| 9.8 | Yards per pass | 5.9 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 2.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-36 | Penalties | 6-78 |
| 27:38 | Possession | 32:22 |
Costliest call
Q3 12:58 MEM punt on 4th & 2 at MEM 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.60 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:28RICETyvonn Byars 1 Yd Run (Chase Allen Kick)38–14
- Q3 0:49MEMGreg Desrosiers Jr. 2 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)38–7
- Q2 0:00MEMGianni Spetic 37 Yd Field Goal 31–7
- Q2 2:03RICEAaron Turner 12 Yd pass from Chase Jenkins (Enock Gota Kick)28–7
- Q2 7:54MEMFrank Peasant 1 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)28–0
- Q2 12:25MEMFrank Peasant 1 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)21–0
- Q1 2:34MEMFrank Peasant 2 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)14–0
- Q1 10:35MEMBrendon Lewis 18 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (RICE Elo 1163, MEM Elo 1681 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects RICE +18.3 (13% to win) — 4.3 points clear of MEM's market line of +14. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MEM | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.0 (#61) | CORE overall | -26.8 (#132) |
| +4 / +2 | offense / defense | -20 / +7 |
| 2.73 | points / drive | 1.40 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 3.09 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 38% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -24 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →