Massachusetts vs. Missouri: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MASSTeam statsMIZ
- Q4 13:09MIZTavorus Jones 3 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)6–42
- Q3 0:56MIZBrett Norfleet 9 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Robert Meyer Kick)6–35
- Q3 11:33MIZAhmad Hardy 16 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)6–28
- Q2 4:45MIZAhmad Hardy 1 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)6–21
- Q1 0:35MIZAhmad Hardy 5 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)6–14
- Q1 4:31MASSMax Dowling 2 Yd pass from AJ Hairston (Derek Morris PAT blocked)6–7
- Q1 10:12MIZJamal Roberts 9 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MASS played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MIZ did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.2 vs 3rd & 5.4
- PassAJ Hairston Jr 11/31, 75 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushRocko Griffin 5 CAR, 24 YDS
- RecJacquon Gibson 6 REC, 30 YDS
- PassBeau Pribula 26/29, 241 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushAhmad Hardy 24 CAR, 130 YDS, 3 TD
- RecKevin Coleman Jr. 12 REC, 108 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMIZ up 29 entering the 4th quarter. Across 527 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Massachusetts vs. Missouri?
Massachusetts 6, Missouri 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MIZ) was correct.
| MASS | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 124 | Total yards | 521 |
| 105 | Passing yards | 253 |
| 19 | Rushing yards | 268 |
| 9 | First downs | 31 |
| 4-16 | 3rd down | 10-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 14/39 | Comp/Att | 27/32 |
| 2.7 | Yards per pass | 7.9 |
| 1.2 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-10 | Penalties | 1-5 |
| 21:17 | Possession | 38:43 |
Costliest call
Q3 2:31 MIZ punt on 4th & 14 at MASS 38. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.41 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 13:09MIZTavorus Jones 3 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)6–42
- Q3 0:56MIZBrett Norfleet 9 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Robert Meyer Kick)6–35
- Q3 11:33MIZAhmad Hardy 16 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)6–28
- Q2 4:45MIZAhmad Hardy 1 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)6–21
- Q1 0:35MIZAhmad Hardy 5 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)6–14
- Q1 4:31MASSMax Dowling 2 Yd pass from AJ Hairston (Derek Morris PAT blocked)6–7
- Q1 10:12MIZJamal Roberts 9 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIZ Elo 1762, MASS Elo 1058 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MIZ -30.6 (97% to win) — 13.9 points clear of MASS's market line of -44.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MASS | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| -40.3 (#136) | CORE overall | +20.9 (#12) |
| -22 / +18 | offense / defense | +5 / -15 |
| 0.88 | points / drive | 2.45 |
| 3.71 | allowed / drive | 1.57 |
| 43% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →