| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT1 | OT2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRSH | 3 | 14 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 51 |
| UL | 3 | 14 | 3 | 21 | 7 | 6 | 54 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UL Elo 1364, MRSH Elo 1511) plus home-field advantage. That projects UL +3.5 (40% to win), essentially in line with the market.
MRSH up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Marshall 51, Louisiana 54.
No — the model picked MRSH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had MRSH pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Paul Hutson III 46 Yd Interception Return (Lorcan Quinn Kick)
Michael Allen 68 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)
Demarcus Lacey 32 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)
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