Marshall vs. Louisiana: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MRSHTeam statsUL
- 2OT 0:00ULLunch Winfield 10 Yd Run51–54
- 2OT 0:00MRSHLorcan Quinn 46 Yd Field Goal51–48
- OT 0:00MRSHAdrian Norton 3 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)48–48
- OT 0:00ULZylan Perry 25 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)41–48
- Q4 0:16ULDale Martin 24 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)41–41
- Q4 1:01MRSHDemarcus Lacey 27 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)41–34
- Q4 4:27ULCharles Robertson 45 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)34–34
- Q4 10:16ULLunch Winfield 2 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)34–27
- Q3 1:32ULTony Sterner 35 Yd Field Goal 34–20
- Q3 6:55MRSHLorcan Quinn 30 Yd Field Goal 34–17
- Q3 11:11MRSHPaul Hutson III 46 Yd Interception Return (Lorcan Quinn Kick)31–17
- Q3 14:20MRSHMichael Allen 68 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)24–17
- Q2 0:23MRSHDemarcus Lacey 32 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)17–17
- Q2 1:43ULLunch Winfield 6 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)10–17
- Q2 6:41ULZylan Perry 19 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)10–10
- Q2 10:51MRSHMichael Allen 9 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)10–3
- Q1 6:46ULTony Sterner 26 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 9:52MRSHLorcan Quinn 53 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MRSH played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UL did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.8 vs 3rd & 6.2
- PassCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 24/31, 258 YDS, 3 TD
- RushMichael Allen 19 CAR, 138 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDemarcus Lacey 10 REC, 146 YDS, 2 TD
- PassLunch Winfield 7/13, 125 YDS, 2 TD
- RushLunch Winfield 13 CAR, 129 YDS, 3 TD
- RecCharles Robertson 2 REC, 61 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMRSH up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:16UL +93%
Dale Martin 24 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)
- OT 0:00UL +90%
Zylan Perry 25 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)
- Q4 0:11MRSH +79%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 4 yds to the MRSH 29
- Q4 4:27UL +51%
Charles Robertson 45 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)
- Q2 0:23MRSH +28%
PENALTY MAR False Start (Clary,Isaac) 5 yards from UL 03 to UL 08. NO PLAY
- Q4 4:10MRSH +27%
Michael Allen run for 16 yds to the MRSH 45 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Marshall vs. Louisiana?
Marshall 51, Louisiana 54.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MRSH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MRSH | UL | |
|---|---|---|
| 503 | Total yards | 461 |
| 258 | Passing yards | 197 |
| 245 | Rushing yards | 264 |
| 27 | First downs | 29 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 7-14 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 24/31 | Comp/Att | 14/28 |
| 8.3 | Yards per pass | 7.0 |
| 5.1 | Yards per rush | 5.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 12-102 | Penalties | 1-5 |
| 30:28 | Possession | 29:32 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- 2OT 0:00ULLunch Winfield 10 Yd Run51–54
- 2OT 0:00MRSHLorcan Quinn 46 Yd Field Goal51–48
- OT 0:00MRSHAdrian Norton 3 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)48–48
- OT 0:00ULZylan Perry 25 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)41–48
- Q4 0:16ULDale Martin 24 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)41–41
- Q4 1:01MRSHDemarcus Lacey 27 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)41–34
- Q4 4:27ULCharles Robertson 45 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)34–34
- Q4 10:16ULLunch Winfield 2 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)34–27
- Q3 1:32ULTony Sterner 35 Yd Field Goal 34–20
- Q3 6:55MRSHLorcan Quinn 30 Yd Field Goal 34–17
- Q3 11:11MRSHPaul Hutson III 46 Yd Interception Return (Lorcan Quinn Kick)31–17
- Q3 14:20MRSHMichael Allen 68 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)24–17
- Q2 0:23MRSHDemarcus Lacey 32 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)17–17
- Q2 1:43ULLunch Winfield 6 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)10–17
- Q2 6:41ULZylan Perry 19 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)10–10
- Q2 10:51MRSHMichael Allen 9 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)10–3
- Q1 6:46ULTony Sterner 26 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 9:52MRSHLorcan Quinn 53 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UL Elo 1364, MRSH Elo 1511 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UL +3.5 (42% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MRSH | UL | |
|---|---|---|
| -2.7 (#71) | CORE overall | -20.6 (#126) |
| +0 / +3 | offense / defense | -8 / +13 |
| 2.37 | points / drive | 2.09 |
| 2.59 | allowed / drive | 2.56 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| -6 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →