Center Parc StadiumConference gameClosing line: MRSH +-9.5 · MRSH covered
Sat, Nov 15, 7:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRSH | 7 | 14 | 0 | 9 | 30 |
| GAST | 7 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 18 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (GAST Elo 1098, MRSH Elo 1508) plus home-field advantage. That projects GAST +14 (15% to win) — 4.5 points of value on MRSH versus the market line of +9.5.
MRSH up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Marshall 30, Georgia State 18.
Yes — the model's pick (MRSH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MRSH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(13:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Simmons rush left for 92 yards gain to the MU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:05, 1ST DOWN #92 L.Rickman kick attempt good (H: #93 B.Gaines, LS: #97 S.Radnoti)
(04:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Finley pass intercepted by #4 J.Green-McKnight at MU12 #4 J.Green-McKnight return 3 yards to the MU15 (#30 R.Amos)
(03:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Finley rush left for 8 yards loss to the MU25 fumbled by #4 T.Finley at MU20 forced by #8 J.Al-Amin recovered by MU #26 C.Clark-Glover at MU25, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (03:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Finley rush left for 9 yards loss to the MU26 fumbled by #4 T.Finley at MU20 forced by #8 J.Al-Amin, out of bounds at MU26)
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