Marshall vs. Georgia State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MRSHTeam statsGAST
- Q4 6:38MRSHAdrian Norton 29 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)30–18
- Q4 14:17MRSHLorcan Quinn 30 Yd Field Goal 24–18
- Q3 3:27GASTGrant Hollier 2 Yd pass from TJ Finley (TJ Finley Pass to Jordon Simmons for Two-Point Conversion)21–18
- Q2 0:00GASTBraeden McAlister 60 Yd Field Goal 21–10
- Q2 0:46MRSHToby Payne 26 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)21–7
- Q2 5:30MRSHDemarcus Lacey 5 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)14–7
- Q1 1:50MRSHMichael Allen 4 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:05GASTJordon Simmons 92 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 22/27, 321 YDS, 3 TD
- RushCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 17 CAR, 97 YDS
- RecToby Payne 5 REC, 110 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTJ Finley 25/39, 251 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushJordon Simmons 19 CAR, 164 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTed Hurst III 7 REC, 74 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMRSH up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 13:08GAST +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Lacey rush left for 1 yard loss to the MU37 (#25 J.Robinson)
- Q1 1:50MRSH +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Allen rush middle for 4 yards gain to the GSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 13:05GAST +14%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Simmons rush left for 92 yards gain to the MU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 5:30MRSH +14%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson pass complete short middle to #4 D.Lacey caught at GSU00, for 5 yards to the GSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 6:38MRSH +12%
Adrian Norton 29 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
- Q4 10:15MRSH +11%
No Huddle-Shotgun #44 A.Roberts rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MU06 (#99 J.Flounoy; #4 D.Hopkins)
FAQ
What was the final score of Marshall vs. Georgia State?
Marshall 30, Georgia State 18.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MRSH) was correct.
| MRSH | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| 489 | Total yards | 409 |
| 321 | Passing yards | 251 |
| 168 | Rushing yards | 158 |
| 24 | First downs | 21 |
| 3-9 | 3rd down | 7-17 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 4-4 |
| 22/27 | Comp/Att | 25/41 |
| 11.9 | Yards per pass | 6.1 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 7-56 | Penalties | 3-15 |
| 27:27 | Possession | 32:33 |
Costliest call
Q1 13:23 MRSH punt on 4th & 1 at MRSH 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:38MRSHAdrian Norton 29 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)30–18
- Q4 14:17MRSHLorcan Quinn 30 Yd Field Goal 24–18
- Q3 3:27GASTGrant Hollier 2 Yd pass from TJ Finley (TJ Finley Pass to Jordon Simmons for Two-Point Conversion)21–18
- Q2 0:00GASTBraeden McAlister 60 Yd Field Goal 21–10
- Q2 0:46MRSHToby Payne 26 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)21–7
- Q2 5:30MRSHDemarcus Lacey 5 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)14–7
- Q1 1:50MRSHMichael Allen 4 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:05GASTJordon Simmons 92 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GAST Elo 1098, MRSH Elo 1508 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GAST +14 (19% to win) — 4.5 points clear of MRSH's market line of +9.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MRSH | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| -2.7 (#71) | CORE overall | -16.7 (#117) |
| +0 / +3 | offense / defense | -6 / +11 |
| 2.37 | points / drive | 1.62 |
| 2.59 | allowed / drive | 3.54 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -6 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →