LSU
5-1·SEC· Elo 1763
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 24 |
| VAN | 7 | 10 | 14 | 0 | 31 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (VAN Elo 1742, LSU Elo 1763) plus home-field advantage. That projects VAN -1.6 (55% to win), essentially in line with the market.
VAN up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
LSU 24, Vanderbilt 31.
Yes — the model's pick (VAN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had VAN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 62 yds for a TD (Garrett Nussmeier pass to Trey'Dez Green for Two-Point Conversion)
Caden Durham run for 51 yds to the VAN 2 for a 1ST down
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
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