LSU vs. Vanderbilt: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LSUTeam statsVAN
- Q4 11:39LSUDamian Ramos 23 Yd Field Goal 24–31
- Q3 0:27VANDiego Pavia 21 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)21–31
- Q3 6:52LSUZavion Thomas 62 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Garrett Nussmeier Pass to Trey'Dez Green for Two-Point Conversion)21–24
- Q3 9:03VANCole Spence 1 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)13–24
- Q2 0:02VANBrock Taylor 46 Yd Field Goal 13–17
- Q2 0:45LSUDamian Ramos 42 Yd Field Goal 13–14
- Q2 5:52VANSedrick Alexander 1 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)10–14
- Q2 14:50LSUTrey'Dez Green 24 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Damian Ramos Kick)10–7
- Q1 3:38VANDiego Pavia 1 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)3–7
- Q1 9:32LSUDamian Ramos 48 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- LSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and VAN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.8 vs 3rd & 4.9
- PassGarrett Nussmeier 19/28, 225 YDS, 2 TD
- RushCaden Durham 7 CAR, 59 YDS
- RecZavion Thomas 4 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDiego Pavia 14/22, 160 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDiego Pavia 17 CAR, 86 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCole Spence 5 REC, 56 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsVAN up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 6:52LSU +26%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 62 yds for a TD (Garrett Nussmeier pass to Trey'Dez Green for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q2 5:52VAN +22%
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
- Q3 0:27VAN +21%
Diego Pavia run for 21 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
- Q2 14:50LSU +20%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 24 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
- Q1 3:38VAN +19%
Diego Pavia run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
- Q3 9:03VAN +19%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Cole Spence for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of LSU vs. Vanderbilt?
LSU 24, Vanderbilt 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (VAN) was correct.
| LSU | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 325 | Total yards | 399 |
| 225 | Passing yards | 160 |
| 100 | Rushing yards | 239 |
| 14 | First downs | 20 |
| 5-11 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 19/28 | Comp/Att | 14/22 |
| 8.0 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 4.8 | Yards per rush | 5.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-52 | Penalties | 4-35 |
| 23:29 | Possession | 36:31 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:02 VAN field goal on 4th & 1 at LSU 28. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.12 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 11:39LSUDamian Ramos 23 Yd Field Goal 24–31
- Q3 0:27VANDiego Pavia 21 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)21–31
- Q3 6:52LSUZavion Thomas 62 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Garrett Nussmeier Pass to Trey'Dez Green for Two-Point Conversion)21–24
- Q3 9:03VANCole Spence 1 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)13–24
- Q2 0:02VANBrock Taylor 46 Yd Field Goal 13–17
- Q2 0:45LSUDamian Ramos 42 Yd Field Goal 13–14
- Q2 5:52VANSedrick Alexander 1 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)10–14
- Q2 14:50LSUTrey'Dez Green 24 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Damian Ramos Kick)10–7
- Q1 3:38VANDiego Pavia 1 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)3–7
- Q1 9:32LSUDamian Ramos 48 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VAN Elo 1742, LSU Elo 1763 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects VAN -1.6 (55% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#115 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #43 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →LSU leads 25–8–1 · 44% have been one-possession games
| LSU | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.1 (#45) | CORE overall | +25.4 (#8) |
| -3 / -11 | offense / defense | +28 / +2 |
| 1.66 | points / drive | 3.85 |
| 1.74 | allowed / drive | 2.40 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 16% |
| +9 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →