LSU vs. Ole Miss: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LSUTeam statsMISS
- Q4 5:04LSUHarlem Berry 6 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)19–24
- Q4 11:08MISSLogan Diggs 6 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)13–24
- Q3 0:58LSUDamian Ramos 48 Yd Field Goal 13–17
- Q3 6:02LSUDamian Ramos 39 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 0:13MISSCayden Lee 2 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)7–17
- Q2 5:09MISSKewan Lacy 15 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)7–10
- Q1 1:40MISSLucas Carneiro 25 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 9:10LSUNic Anderson 7 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Damian Ramos Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassGarrett Nussmeier 21/34, 197 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushHarlem Berry 7 CAR, 22 YDS, 1 TD
- RecZavion Thomas 3 REC, 63 YDS
- PassTrinidad Chambliss 23/39, 314 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKewan Lacy 23 CAR, 87 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCayden Lee 4 REC, 70 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMISS up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 5:09MISS +19%
Kewan Lacy run for 15 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
- Q1 9:10LSU +17%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Nic Anderson for 7 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
- Q4 1:37MISS +16%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 20 yds to the LSU 15 for a 1ST down
- Q4 5:04LSU +15%
Harlem Berry run for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
- Q3 0:58LSU +14%
Damian Ramos 48 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 0:13MISS +13%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Cayden Lee for 2 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of LSU vs. Ole Miss?
LSU 19, Ole Miss 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MISS) was correct.
| LSU | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| 254 | Total yards | 480 |
| 197 | Passing yards | 314 |
| 57 | Rushing yards | 166 |
| 16 | First downs | 28 |
| 2-11 | 3rd down | 8-16 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 21/34 | Comp/Att | 23/39 |
| 5.8 | Yards per pass | 8.1 |
| 2.6 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-78 | Penalties | 14-109 |
| 27:38 | Possession | 32:22 |
Costliest call
Q4 6:03 LSU go for it on 4th & 5 at MISS 30. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:04LSUHarlem Berry 6 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)19–24
- Q4 11:08MISSLogan Diggs 6 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)13–24
- Q3 0:58LSUDamian Ramos 48 Yd Field Goal 13–17
- Q3 6:02LSUDamian Ramos 39 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 0:13MISSCayden Lee 2 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)7–17
- Q2 5:09MISSKewan Lacy 15 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)7–10
- Q1 1:40MISSLucas Carneiro 25 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 9:10LSUNic Anderson 7 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Damian Ramos Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MISS Elo 1981, LSU Elo 1747 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MISS -11.8 (79% to win) — 8.8 points clear of MISS's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#117 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #33 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →LSU leads 64–41–4 · 43% have been one-possession games
| LSU | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.1 (#45) | CORE overall | +19.4 (#16) |
| -3 / -11 | offense / defense | +16 / -4 |
| 1.66 | points / drive | 3.33 |
| 1.74 | allowed / drive | 2.07 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +9 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →