LSU
4-0·SEC· Elo 1747
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | 7 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 19 |
| MISS | 3 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 24 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MISS Elo 1981, LSU Elo 1747) plus home-field advantage. That projects MISS -11.8 (81% to win) — 8.8 points of value on MISS versus the market line of -3.
MISS up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
LSU 19, Ole Miss 24.
Yes — the model's pick (MISS) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MISS pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Garrett Nussmeier pass intercepted Wydett Williams Jr. return for no gain to the MISS 12
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Cayden Lee for 32 yds Cayden Lee fumbled, forced by A.J. Haulcy, recovered by LSU Whit Weeks
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 18 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST down
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