LSU vs. Houston: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LSUTeam statsHOU
- Q4 1:15LSUZavion Thomas 3 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)35–38
- Q4 2:23HOUDean Connors 20 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)28–38
- Q4 7:42HOUEthan Sanchez 25 Yd Field Goal 28–31
- Q4 14:54LSUKyle Parker 6 Yd pass from Michael Van Buren Jr. (Damian Ramos Kick)28–28
- Q3 4:42HOUTraville Frederick Jr. 2 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)21–28
- Q3 9:31LSUTrey'Dez Green 4 Yd pass from Michael Van Buren Jr. (Damian Ramos Kick)21–21
- Q2 0:04HOUTanner Koziol 7 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–21
- Q2 11:05HOUAmare Thomas 4 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–14
- Q1 6:08HOUAmare Thomas 8 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–7
- Q1 10:48LSUTrey'Dez Green 23 Yd pass from Michael Van Buren Jr. (Damian Ramos Kick)14–0
- Q1 14:46LSUBarion Brown 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Damian Ramos Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = LSU ahead, below = HOU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassMichael Van Buren Jr. 16/26, 267 YDS, 3 TD
- RushHarlem Berry 3 CAR, 45 YDS
- RecTrey'Dez Green 4 REC, 80 YDS, 2 TD
- PassConner Weigman 28/37, 230 YDS, 4 TD
- RushDean Connors 16 CAR, 126 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTanner Koziol 9 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of LSU vs. Houston?
LSU 35, Houston 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| LSU | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 344 | Total yards | 437 |
| 267 | Passing yards | 230 |
| 77 | Rushing yards | 207 |
| 17 | First downs | 32 |
| 7-12 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 16/26 | Comp/Att | 28/37 |
| 10.3 | Yards per pass | 6.2 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-95 | Penalties | 4-29 |
| 21:28 | Possession | 38:32 |
- Q4 1:15LSUZavion Thomas 3 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)35–38
- Q4 2:23HOUDean Connors 20 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)28–38
- Q4 7:42HOUEthan Sanchez 25 Yd Field Goal 28–31
- Q4 14:54LSUKyle Parker 6 Yd pass from Michael Van Buren Jr. (Damian Ramos Kick)28–28
- Q3 4:42HOUTraville Frederick Jr. 2 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)21–28
- Q3 9:31LSUTrey'Dez Green 4 Yd pass from Michael Van Buren Jr. (Damian Ramos Kick)21–21
- Q2 0:04HOUTanner Koziol 7 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–21
- Q2 11:05HOUAmare Thomas 4 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–14
- Q1 6:08HOUAmare Thomas 8 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–7
- Q1 10:48LSUTrey'Dez Green 23 Yd pass from Michael Van Buren Jr. (Damian Ramos Kick)14–0
- Q1 14:46LSUBarion Brown 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Damian Ramos Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HOU Elo 1496, LSU Elo 1691 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects HOU +7.8 (31% to win) — 9.3 points clear of LSU's market line of -1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#114 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #26 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →| LSU | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.1 (#45) | CORE overall | -0.9 (#65) |
| -3 / -11 | offense / defense | -1 / +0 |
| 1.66 | points / drive | 2.41 |
| 1.74 | allowed / drive | 2.08 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +9 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →