LSU
7-5·SEC· Elo 1691
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | 14 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 35 |
| HOU | 7 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 38 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (HOU Elo 1496, LSU Elo 1691) on a neutral field. That projects HOU +7.8 (28% to win) — 9.3 points of value on LSU versus the market line of -1.5.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = LSU ahead, below = HOU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
HOU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
LSU 35, Houston 38.
No — the model picked LSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had LSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete deep left to #3 C.Hilton Jr. caught at HOU40, for 46 yards to the HOU27 (#15 W.James), 1ST DOWN
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete deep middle to #14 T.Green caught at HOU36, for 42 yards to the HOU15 (#6 J.Allen), 1ST DOWN
Trey'Dez Green 23 Yd pass from Michael Van Buren Jr. (Damian Ramos Kick)
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