#3Michael Van Buren Jr.

QB·LSU·2025

Michael Van Buren Jr. is a Clutch Passer for LSU. Michael's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 56 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Michael Van Buren Jr.'s projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

94/151 Comp/Att1010 Pass yards8 Pass TD2 INT62.3% Comp %

Rushing

129 Rush yards1 Rush TD48 Carries2.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume49
Dual-Threat20
Consistency0
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 1.27 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.00 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs SE Louisiana.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
4	vsSE Louisiana	W56-10	—	10/12	122	1	0	82.9	16	1	1.00
9	vsTexas A&M	L25-49	20.7	3/4	50	1	0	97.8	7	0	0.79
11	@Alabama	L9-20	14.8	5/11	52	0	0	49.0	1	0	-0.63
12	vsArkansas	W23-22	5.1	21/31	221	1	0	56.2	36	0	-0.55
13	vsWestern Kentucky	W13-10	1.6	25/42	202	1	1	12.3	12	0	-1.01
14	@Oklahoma	L13-17	18.3	14/25	96	1	1	31.1	33	0	-0.75
20	vsHouston	L35-38	7.4	16/26	267	3	0	86.9	24	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

17.1%

Passing plays

28.1%

Rushing plays

3.6%

Standard downs

16.2%

Passing downs

18.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: -0.72
Passing downs: -0.33
Pass / Rush EPA: -0.56 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).