Louisville vs. Virginia Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LOUTeam statsVT
- Q4 2:16LOUKeyjuan Brown 24 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)28–16
- Q3 5:01LOUKeyjuan Brown 2 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)21–16
- Q3 9:07LOUCaullin Lacy 24 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Cooper Ranvier Kick)14–16
- Q2 8:25VTCameron Seldon 5 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)7–16
- Q1 0:52VTTeam Safety 7–9
- Q1 1:57VTKyron Drones 3 Yd Run (John Love Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:58LOUIsaac Brown 52 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassMiller Moss 19/28, 136 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushIsaac Brown 16 CAR, 130 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChris Bell 8 REC, 56 YDS
- PassKyron Drones 11/24, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKyron Drones 14 CAR, 85 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAyden Greene 1 REC, 17 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLOU up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 5:01LOU +24%
#22 K.Brown rush middle for 2 yards gain to the VT 00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 5:40LOU +12%
Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush middle for 10 yards gain (6) to the UL 47, out of bounds at UL 47 PENALTY UL Holding (#0 C.Bell) 10 yards from UL 43 to UL 33
- Q4 9:09LOU +11%
#93 D.Chapeau punt 45 yards to the VT 00, Touchback
- Q4 8:55VT +10%
Shotgun #1 K.Drones rush middle for 8 yards gain to the VT 28 (#17 A.Green; #12 K.Perry)
- Q4 11:38VT +9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #27 M.Hawkins rush middle for 7 yards gain to the VT 27 (#24 C.Gordon; #11 T.Capers) PENALTY VT Illegal Shift 5 yards from VT 20 to VT 15. NO PLAY
- Q3 5:28LOU +9%
Shotgun #22 K.Brown rush middle for 3 yards gain to the VT 02 (#13 K.Copeland; #22 K.Gilliam Jr.)
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisville vs. Virginia Tech?
Louisville 28, Virginia Tech 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LOU) was correct.
| LOU | VT | |
|---|---|---|
| 371 | Total yards | 240 |
| 136 | Passing yards | 76 |
| 235 | Rushing yards | 164 |
| 18 | First downs | 16 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 4-15 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 19/28 | Comp/Att | 11/24 |
| 4.9 | Yards per pass | 3.2 |
| 6.9 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-52 | Penalties | 5-46 |
| 30:22 | Possession | 29:38 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:05 LOU punt on 4th & 2 at VT 37. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.64 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:16LOUKeyjuan Brown 24 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)28–16
- Q3 5:01LOUKeyjuan Brown 2 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)21–16
- Q3 9:07LOUCaullin Lacy 24 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Cooper Ranvier Kick)14–16
- Q2 8:25VTCameron Seldon 5 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)7–16
- Q1 0:52VTTeam Safety 7–9
- Q1 1:57VTKyron Drones 3 Yd Run (John Love Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:58LOUIsaac Brown 52 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VT Elo 1430, LOU Elo 1738 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects VT +9.9 (27% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesVirginia Tech leads 6–4 · Louisville has won 2 straight · 30% have been one-possession games
| LOU | VT | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.6 (#18) | CORE overall | -9.5 (#94) |
| +5 / -14 | offense / defense | -0 / +9 |
| 2.32 | points / drive | 1.85 |
| 1.71 | allowed / drive | 3.19 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +9 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →