Lane StadiumConference game
Sat, Nov 1, 7:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 7 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 28 |
| VT | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (VT Elo 1430, LOU Elo 1738) plus home-field advantage. That projects VT +9.9 (23% to win), essentially in line with the market.
LOU up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Louisville 28, Virginia Tech 16.
Yes — the model's pick (LOU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had LOU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
End of 2nd quarter.
End of 3rd quarter.
(02:16) No Huddle #1 K.Drones rush right for 0 yards to the UL 05 (#90 R.Konga) PENALTY UL Offside 2 yards from UL 05 to UL 03, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
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