Sat, Nov 1, 7:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UL | 10 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 31 |
| USA | 0 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 22 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (USA Elo 1400, UL Elo 1322) plus home-field advantage. That projects USA -5.5 (66% to win) — 2.0 points of value on USA versus the market line of -3.5.
UL up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Louisiana 31, South Alabama 22.
No — the model picked USA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had USA pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(12:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete deep left to #9 J.Scott caught at UL 29, for 64 yards to the UL 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:59, 1ST DOWN #82 T.Thomas pass attempt Successful
(02:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 0 yards to the UL 01 (#68 F.West Jr.; #17 A.Williams) PENALTY UL Offside (#7 C.Flowers). NO PLAY
(02:44) Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 0 yards to the UL 01 (#31 D.Fite; #68 F.West Jr.), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
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