Louisiana vs. South Alabama: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ULTeam statsUSA
- Q4 11:59USAJeremy Scott 64 Yd pass from Bishop Davenport (Bishop Davenport Pass to Trent Thomas for Two-Point Conversion)31–22
- Q3 6:54USABishop Davenport 5 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)31–14
- Q3 11:58ULLunch Winfield 1 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)31–7
- Q2 0:11ULShelton Sampson Jr. 17 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)24–7
- Q2 2:09ULZylan Perry 18 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)17–7
- Q2 9:38USAKeenan Phillips 15 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)10–7
- Q1 1:24ULTony Sterner 32 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 8:05ULShelton Sampson Jr. 25 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassLunch Winfield 14/15, 232 YDS, 2 TD
- RushZylan Perry 15 CAR, 56 YDS, 1 TD
- RecShelton Sampson Jr. 6 REC, 138 YDS, 2 TD
- PassBishop Davenport 20/33, 203 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKeenan Phillips 13 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJeremy Scott 6 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUL up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 2:09UL +22%
Shotgun #3 Z.Perry rush middle for 18 yards gain to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 9:38USA +21%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush right for 15 yards gain to the UL 00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 8:05UL +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete short middle to #6 S.Sampson Jr. caught at USA06, for 25 yards to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 11:59USA +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete deep left to #9 J.Scott caught at UL 29, for 64 yards to the UL 00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN #82 T.Thomas pass attempt Successful
- Q2 0:11UL +15%
Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #6 S.Sampson Jr. caught at USA00, for 17 yards to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 9:33USA +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush right for 0 yards to the USA23 (#3 J.Dugger)
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana vs. South Alabama?
Louisiana 31, South Alabama 22.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UL | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| 393 | Total yards | 368 |
| 232 | Passing yards | 203 |
| 161 | Rushing yards | 165 |
| 22 | First downs | 20 |
| 7-13 | 3rd down | 8-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 14/17 | Comp/Att | 20/33 |
| 13.6 | Yards per pass | 6.2 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-65 | Penalties | 6-52 |
| 32:54 | Possession | 27:06 |
Costliest call
Q1 12:51 USA punt on 4th & 5 at UL 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.63 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 11:59USAJeremy Scott 64 Yd pass from Bishop Davenport (Bishop Davenport Pass to Trent Thomas for Two-Point Conversion)31–22
- Q3 6:54USABishop Davenport 5 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)31–14
- Q3 11:58ULLunch Winfield 1 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)31–7
- Q2 0:11ULShelton Sampson Jr. 17 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)24–7
- Q2 2:09ULZylan Perry 18 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)17–7
- Q2 9:38USAKeenan Phillips 15 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)10–7
- Q1 1:24ULTony Sterner 32 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 8:05ULShelton Sampson Jr. 25 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USA Elo 1400, UL Elo 1322 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USA -5.5 (65% to win) — 2.0 points clear of USA's market line of -3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesLouisiana leads 10–4 · 43% have been one-possession games
| UL | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| -20.6 (#126) | CORE overall | -14.2 (#104) |
| -8 / +13 | offense / defense | -4 / +11 |
| 2.09 | points / drive | 2.35 |
| 2.56 | allowed / drive | 2.86 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -9 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →