Hancock Whitney StadiumConference gameClosing line: USA -3.5 · UL covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UL | 10 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 31 |
| USA | 0 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 22 |
Team stats
ULthis game · better side highlightedUSA
393
Total yards
368232
Passing yards
203161
Rushing yards
16523
First downs
207-13 · 54%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
USA 1400
UL 1322
Projected spread
USA -5.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
USA
66% to win
Market spread
USA -3.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
USA
2.0 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
66%
USA · market 62%
Our model blends Elo ratings (USA Elo 1400, UL Elo 1322) plus home-field advantage. That projects USA -5.5 (66% to win) — 2.0 points of value on USA versus the market line of -3.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
USA (top)UL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: USA 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- UL pass offense (0.15 PPA) vs. USA pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge USA.
- UL rush offense (0.13 PPA) vs. USA rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge USA.
- USA rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. UL rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge UL.
Drive-by-drive
UL 5/10 scoring drives← own end zone →USA 3/10 scoring drives
USAPUNT6 pl, 32 yds· own 25Q1
ULTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
USAPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
UL up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
97%
UL went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana vs. South Alabama?
Louisiana 31, South Alabama 22.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had USA pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.