Louisiana vs. James Madison: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ULTeam statsJMU
- Q4 3:05JMUMorgan Suarez 24 Yd Field Goal 14–24
- Q4 12:33JMULandon Ellis 4 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)14–21
- Q3 14:46JMULandon Ellis 62 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)14–14
- Q2 3:16ULDale Martin 69 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)14–7
- Q2 4:47JMULandon Ellis 4 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)7–7
- Q2 8:33ULBrock Chappell 5 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassLunch Winfield 14/28, 243 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushLunch Winfield 15 CAR, 23 YDS
- RecRobert Williams 5 REC, 134 YDS
- PassAlonza Barnett III 26/40, 290 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushWayne Knight 20 CAR, 111 YDS
- RecLandon Ellis 6 REC, 120 YDS, 3 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 14:46JMU +28%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Landon Ellis for 62 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)
- Q2 3:16UL +23%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Dale Martin for 69 yds for a TD (Tony Sterner KICK)
- Q4 12:33JMU +22%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Landon Ellis for 4 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)
- Q2 4:47JMU +21%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Landon Ellis for 4 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)
- Q2 8:33UL +21%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Brock Chappell for 5 yds for a TD (Tony Sterner KICK)
- Q3 2:07UL +10%
PENALTY UL False Start (Isom,Jakoby) 4 yards from UL 08 to UL 04. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana vs. James Madison?
Louisiana 14, James Madison 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JMU) was correct.
| UL | JMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 288 | Total yards | 477 |
| 243 | Passing yards | 290 |
| 45 | Rushing yards | 187 |
| 11 | First downs | 21 |
| 3-14 | 3rd down | 8-17 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 14/29 | Comp/Att | 26/40 |
| 8.4 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 1.6 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 6-53 | Penalties | 10-102 |
| 23:09 | Possession | 36:51 |
Costliest call
Q3 12:47 UL punt on 4th & 2 at UL 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.88 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:05JMUMorgan Suarez 24 Yd Field Goal 14–24
- Q4 12:33JMULandon Ellis 4 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)14–21
- Q3 14:46JMULandon Ellis 62 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)14–14
- Q2 3:16ULDale Martin 69 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)14–7
- Q2 4:47JMULandon Ellis 4 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)7–7
- Q2 8:33ULBrock Chappell 5 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (JMU Elo 1645, UL Elo 1367 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects JMU -13.5 (82% to win) — 5.0 points clear of UL's market line of -18.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UL | JMU | |
|---|---|---|
| -20.6 (#126) | CORE overall | +20.6 (#13) |
| -8 / +13 | offense / defense | +5 / -16 |
| 2.09 | points / drive | 3.06 |
| 2.56 | allowed / drive | 1.42 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -9 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →