Sat, Oct 11, 4:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UL | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| JMU | 0 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 24 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (JMU Elo 1645, UL Elo 1367) plus home-field advantage. That projects JMU -13.5 (84% to win) — 5.0 points of value on UL versus the market line of -18.5.
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Louisiana 14, James Madison 24.
Yes — the model's pick (JMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had JMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Dale Martin for 69 yds for a TD (Tony Sterner KICK)
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Landon Ellis for 62 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Braeden Wisloski for 31 yds to the UL 30 for a 1ST down Louisiana Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the UL 40 for a 1ST down
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