Bridgeforth StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UL | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| JMU | 0 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 24 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
JMU 1645
UL 1367
Projected spread
JMU -13.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
JMU
84% to win
Market spread
JMU -18.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
UL
5.0 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
84%
JMU · market 87%
Our model blends Elo ratings (JMU Elo 1645, UL Elo 1367) plus home-field advantage. That projects JMU -13.5 (84% to win) — 5.0 points of value on UL versus the market line of -18.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
JMU (top)UL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: JMU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- UL rush offense (0.13 PPA) vs. JMU rush defense (-0.00 allowed) — edge UL.
- UL pass offense (0.15 PPA) vs. JMU pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge UL.
- JMU rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. UL rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge JMU.
Drive-by-drive
UL 2/14 scoring drives← own end zone →JMU 4/14 scoring drives
ULPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1
JMUFUM8 pl, 52 yds· own 15Q1
ULPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 33Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
50%
JMU win rate
How often the home team won from here
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana vs. James Madison?
Louisiana 14, James Madison 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had JMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.