| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UL | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 |
| DEL | 7 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 20 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (DEL Elo 1339, UL Elo 1351) on a neutral field. That projects DEL +0.5 (49% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pick: UL · 4 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
DEL up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Louisiana 13, Delaware 20.
No — the model picked UL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had UL pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
No Huddle-Shotgun #27 J.Silver rush middle for 61 yards gain to the UL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:18, #91 N.Reed kick attempt good (H: #99 B.Lach, LS: #49 M.Sills)
Sean Wilson 35 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)
#2 L.Winfield pass intercepted by #1 N.Evans at DEL00, Touchback
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