Louisiana vs. Arkansas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ULTeam statsARST
- Q4 6:40ARSTClune Van Andel 24 Yd Field Goal 34–30
- Q4 13:35ULTony Sterner 50 Yd Field Goal 34–27
- Q3 6:29ULBill Davis 36 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)31–27
- Q2 0:53ARSTDevin Spencer 1 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)24–27
- Q2 3:38ULLunch Winfield 1 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)24–20
- Q2 6:45ARSTChauncy Cobb 93 Yd Kickoff Return (Clune Van Andel Kick)17–20
- Q2 6:57ULTony Sterner 41 Yd Field Goal 17–13
- Q2 10:23ARSTClune Van Andel 41 Yd Field Goal 14–13
- Q2 14:44ULLunch Winfield 1 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)14–10
- Q1 3:40ULZylan Perry 1 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)7–10
- Q1 7:50ARSTCody Sigler 27 Yd Fumble Return (Clune Van Andel Kick)0–10
- Q1 9:11ARSTClune Van Andel 21 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassLunch Winfield 18/25, 147 YDS
- RushLunch Winfield 20 CAR, 89 YDS, 2 TD
- RecShelton Sampson Jr. 3 REC, 35 YDS
- PassJaylen Raynor 25/43, 256 YDS
- RushDevin Spencer 16 CAR, 71 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCorey Rucker 8 REC, 120 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUL up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 6:29UL +28%
Shotgun #7 B.Davis rush middle for 36 yards gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 0:53ARST +24%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Spencer rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UL 00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 3:38UL +23%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush right for 1 yard gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 6:45ARST +22%
#40 L.Klotz kickoff 58 yards to the ASU07 #16 C.Cobb return 93 yards to the UL 00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 14:44UL +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush left for 1 yard gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 4:07UL +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush right for 42 yards gain to the ASU45 (#6 A.McGhee), 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana vs. Arkansas State?
Louisiana 34, Arkansas State 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UL | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 349 | Total yards | 394 |
| 147 | Passing yards | 256 |
| 202 | Rushing yards | 138 |
| 16 | First downs | 24 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 4-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 18/25 | Comp/Att | 25/43 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 6.0 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 11-76 | Penalties | 1-15 |
| 33:59 | Possession | 26:01 |
Costliest call
Q1 9:11 ARST field goal on 4th & 3 at UL 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:40ARSTClune Van Andel 24 Yd Field Goal 34–30
- Q4 13:35ULTony Sterner 50 Yd Field Goal 34–27
- Q3 6:29ULBill Davis 36 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)31–27
- Q2 0:53ARSTDevin Spencer 1 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)24–27
- Q2 3:38ULLunch Winfield 1 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)24–20
- Q2 6:45ARSTChauncy Cobb 93 Yd Kickoff Return (Clune Van Andel Kick)17–20
- Q2 6:57ULTony Sterner 41 Yd Field Goal 17–13
- Q2 10:23ARSTClune Van Andel 41 Yd Field Goal 14–13
- Q2 14:44ULLunch Winfield 1 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)14–10
- Q1 3:40ULZylan Perry 1 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)7–10
- Q1 7:50ARSTCody Sigler 27 Yd Fumble Return (Clune Van Andel Kick)0–10
- Q1 9:11ARSTClune Van Andel 21 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARST Elo 1306, UL Elo 1350 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARST -0.6 (53% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesLouisiana leads 28–18 · Louisiana has won 2 straight · 48% have been one-possession games
| UL | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| -20.6 (#126) | CORE overall | -16.8 (#118) |
| -8 / +13 | offense / defense | -11 / +6 |
| 2.09 | points / drive | 1.85 |
| 2.56 | allowed / drive | 2.35 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -9 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →