Centennial Bank StadiumConference gameClosing line: ARST -2.5 · UL covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UL | 7 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 34 |
| ARST | 10 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 30 |
Team stats
ULthis game · better side highlightedARST
349
Total yards
394147
Passing yards
256202
Rushing yards
13816
First downs
246-16 · 38%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ARST 1306
UL 1350
Projected spread
ARST -0.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
ARST
52% to win
Market spread
ARST -2.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
52%
ARST · market 55%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ARST Elo 1306, UL Elo 1350) plus home-field advantage. That projects ARST -0.6 (52% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ARST (top)UL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ARST 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- ARST rush offense (-0.01 PPA) vs. UL rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge UL.
- UL pass offense (0.15 PPA) vs. ARST pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge ARST.
- ARST pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. UL pass defense (0.27 allowed) — edge UL.
Drive-by-drive
UL 8/15 scoring drives← own end zone →ARST 4/12 scoring drives
ULPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 37Q1
ARSTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 36Q1
ULPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 15Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
UL up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
65%
UL went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana vs. Arkansas State?
Louisiana 34, Arkansas State 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had ARST pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.