Louisiana Tech vs. UTEP: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LTTeam statsUTEP
- Q4 1:44LTAlonzo Jackson Jr. 23 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)30–11
- Q4 3:34UTEPWondame Davis Jr. 35 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Josh Schuchts Pass to for Two-Point Conversion)24–11
- Q4 4:58LTClay Thevenin 4 Yd Run (Drew Henderson Kick)24–3
- Q4 10:22LTJakari Foster 67 Yd Interception Return (Drew Henderson Kick)17–3
- Q4 14:55UTEPTanner Cragun 38 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q3 5:47LTDrew Henderson 37 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 6:14LTMarques Singleton Jr. 5 Yd pass from Blake Baker (Drew Henderson Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassBlake Baker 18/26, 137 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushClay Thevenin 19 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMarlion Jackson 3 REC, 44 YDS
- PassSkyler Locklear 4/6, 74 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushAshten Emory 11 CAR, 50 YDS
- RecWondame Davis Jr. 2 REC, 58 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLT up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 6:14LT +15%
Blake Baker pass complete to Marques Singleton Jr. for 5 yds for a TD (Drew Henderson KICK)
- Q4 10:22LT +13%
Malachi Nelson pass intercepted Jakari Foster return for 67 yds for a TD (Drew Henderson KICK)
- Q3 5:47LT +11%
Drew Henderson 37 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 14:55UTEP +9%
Tanner Cragun 38 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 12:45LT +8%
John Hoyet Chance punt for 68 yds for a touchback
- Q4 11:05LT +7%
Blake Baker pass complete to Devin Gandy for 2 yds to the LT 31
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana Tech vs. UTEP?
Louisiana Tech 30, UTEP 11.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LT) was correct.
| LT | UTEP | |
|---|---|---|
| 232 | Total yards | 273 |
| 137 | Passing yards | 147 |
| 95 | Rushing yards | 126 |
| 16 | First downs | 15 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 6-17 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 18/26 | Comp/Att | 22/44 |
| 5.3 | Yards per pass | 3.3 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 5-49 | Penalties | 5-50 |
| 32:15 | Possession | 27:45 |
Costliest call
Q4 9:24 UTEP go for it on 4th & 7 at UTEP 28. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.67 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:44LTAlonzo Jackson Jr. 23 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)30–11
- Q4 3:34UTEPWondame Davis Jr. 35 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Josh Schuchts Pass to for Two-Point Conversion)24–11
- Q4 4:58LTClay Thevenin 4 Yd Run (Drew Henderson Kick)24–3
- Q4 10:22LTJakari Foster 67 Yd Interception Return (Drew Henderson Kick)17–3
- Q4 14:55UTEPTanner Cragun 38 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q3 5:47LTDrew Henderson 37 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 6:14LTMarques Singleton Jr. 5 Yd pass from Blake Baker (Drew Henderson Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UTEP Elo 1227, LT Elo 1468 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UTEP +7.2 (33% to win) — 3.7 points clear of LT's market line of +3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesLouisiana Tech leads 18–3–1 · Louisiana Tech has won 4 straight · 36% have been one-possession games
| LT | UTEP | |
|---|---|---|
| -2.2 (#70) | CORE overall | -26.7 (#131) |
| -6 / -4 | offense / defense | -26 / +1 |
| 2.08 | points / drive | 1.32 |
| 1.61 | allowed / drive | 2.36 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| -9 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →